Limit Holdem question about Ax

[winky51]

Your in last middle position with A8 off suit.

4 people left to act.

ONLY 60 possibilities someone else has an ace with a better kicker.

ONLY 72 possibilities someone has a pair.

Thats 132 possibilities of 1326 hands or about a 10% chance per person that they have a better hand. So its a 2/3 chance that no one will have a better hand in the remaining 4 players (about).

So why not raise?

[Pepsquad]

Because it's a great example of a hand that when you raise and are not called you pick up the blinds and when you are called you are usually behind. When an ace comes and you spew chips to your opponent with a better kicker it negates the long term EV of the raise.

[Schwartzy61]

Because you won't knock out a player with a hand better than yours. You will only knock out the player's with hands worse than yours. So you are effectively limiting the field of opponents to those that have you beat.

[winky51]

Don't get me wrong. I don't play this crap but I do a lot of hand analysis. Only been playing a year. So I was trying to understand mathematically why.

So with that maybe we can make some assumptions...

If you are against a better hand I will assume a reraise.

You are out of position and about 75% underdog on average. I figure it at least costs you 5 bets. 3 PF (as they reraise you) and 2 on the flop (you check raise them to find information).

Lets assume if they miss they fold the flop.

If they have any pair they call.

And lets say that if on the flop you get 3 bet or called that you give it up on the turn.

66% you win 2.5 bets (+1.65), all fold
33% you get reraise by a better hand
25% you are the under dog and lose 5 bets (-1.25)
8% you win 4 bets (+.32)

Seems like its positive EV. But of course I am not counting less hands calling you and catching or AK with no pair calling you flop check raise. I guess all these added factors make it -EV.

[hagel666]

[ QUOTE ]
Because it's a great example of a hand that when you raise and are not called you pick up the blinds and when you are called you are usually behind. When an ace comes and you spew chips to your opponent with a better kicker it negates the long term EV of the raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally agree.

I don't play those hands, but what about calling and if no raises behind, you should be ahead if an ace flops, right? (And fold when someone raise pre-flop behind you.)

But then, it might be a losing hand in the long run anyway because you want the ace to flop...

[Mike]

According to my chart A8o wins ~ 21% against four players. If you think they will all fold it is a great play, but as has all ready been mentioned....

There is a great chart at www.seas.upenn.edu/~poker/ you may want to check out as you are serious about numbers. They have numbers they crunched for playing against 1 - 9 players and real numbers grabbed from somewhere else.

[JoeTable]

"it negates the long term EV of the raise. "

Call me a newbie in this neighborhood, but isn't this statement contradictory? What is the definition of EV if it isn't the long term value of a play, all scenarios included. Even the ones where you get called by a better hand and lose. Or does EV mean only the times you win?

[Kevin K.]

[ QUOTE ]
So with that maybe we can make some assumptions...

If you are against a better hand I will assume a reraise.

You are out of position and about 75% underdog on average. I figure it at least costs you 5 bets. 3 PF (as they reraise you) and 2 on the flop (you check raise them to find information).

Lets assume if they miss they fold the flop.

If they have any pair they call.

And lets say that if on the flop you get 3 bet or called that you give it up on the turn.

66% you win 2.5 bets (+1.65), all fold
33% you get reraise by a better hand
25% you are the under dog and lose 5 bets (-1.25)
8% you win 4 bets (+.32)

Seems like its positive EV. But of course I am not counting less hands calling you and catching or AK with no pair calling you flop check raise. I guess all these added factors make it -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that these assumptions change the original question completely. Instead of what if I raise A8o preflop with four left to act, it's become what if I raise preflop, get 3 folds, a reraise back to me and then I check-raise the flop?

I can't tell exactly where you're going here now. This assumes WAY too much to call the original preflop raise a +EV play overall.

As Pepsquad said, you are either going to pick up the blinds here or when an ace flops and you are outkicked, you are going to spew chips. Moreover, what kind of flop do you need to see holding A8o to know that you are ahead against someone who has shown aggression? This is a pretty small pot you are battling for, afterall.

This whole scenario reeks of FPS. You've planned your line for both preflop and the flop in advance holding A8o. Bad plan. You want to take a slight mathematical edge and push it against 4 players to either pick up the blinds or go heads up holding A8o against someone who has bet back at you preflop. Then you are going to auto check-raise the flop.

With this line and holding these cards, you aren't really playing the cards, you're trying to exploit the weakness of your opponents. IMHO, it's a -EV play overall.

[NMcNasty]

Its a marginal play. I sometimes raise with A8s and A9o from that position but fold A8o. I always raise with A7o from the cutoff. Anyone who says its clear this or clear that is wrong. Intuitively I just think its a slightly -EV and most people agree.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Uh, because the 1/3 of the time somebody has a better hand are the lion's share of the times you're called.