Stats vs. Outcome

skipperbob · #1 02-22-2005, 10:10 PM

I have an ongoing dialogue with a frequent poster (quite a knowledgeable fellow; but a mean drunk) which concerns his obsession with statistical analyses of poker outcomes. It is my opinion that the only stat that has ANY meaning is bankroll. His position (once the chaf is separated from the chaf) seems to be that without stats, poker conversations are meaningless......How do y'all come down on the issue? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

The Armchair · #2 02-22-2005, 10:17 PM

I think you're both right. At the end of the day, all that matters is $/hr. However, if you get really lucky, sit down at a $200 NL, post a live blind and get 27o, push, and come up against pocket 2s and pocket 7s, what does it tell you if you backdoor a flush?

If that was your only $200, and you suddenly have like $650, great. But we cannot construct anything meaningful from the event.

eastbay · #3 02-22-2005, 10:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I have an ongoing dialogue with a frequent poster (quite a knowledgeable fellow; but a mean drunk) which concerns his obsession with statistical analyses of poker outcomes. It is my opinion that the only stat that has ANY meaning is bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have to narrow down what you mean by "stat" here. This could be a reasonable position or it could be truly ridiculous depending on what you're calling a "stat."

eastbay

Irieguy · #4 02-23-2005, 02:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I have an ongoing dialogue with a frequent poster (quite a knowledgeable fellow; but a mean drunk) which concerns his obsession with statistical analyses of poker outcomes. It is my opinion that the only stat that has ANY meaning is bankroll. His position (once the chaf is separated from the chaf) seems to be that without stats, poker conversations are meaningless......How do y'all come down on the issue? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you believe yourself, skipper. Let's use the money test. Two players approach you for backing:

A) Has 2500 SNGs logged at the $33 level with a 40% ITM and 24% ROI playing 8 tables at a time. He wants you to back him with a 5K bankroll, because his risk of ruin with that bankroll would be less than 1/2 of 1%.

B) Doesn't believe in stats. All he knows is that he is murdering the Steps and is up over 30K in 2 months. He owes some people money, but doesn't want to be out of the action. He wants 5K also, but will give you 10% more juice than whatever player A wants from you.

Who would you bankroll? Unless you'd say player B, the mean drunk might have a point.

Irieguy