LUCK vs SKILL????

JerBear77 · #1 02-21-2005, 03:36 PM

Anyone know of an article or a post on here that describes the significance of each in Poker?? I've looked around and can't seem to find anything....thought maybe someone knew where to find an article comparing the two.....

Im in the middle of an arguements with a "fish" and trying to have them see the light...

Thanks

gmanko · #2 02-21-2005, 03:58 PM

I know Mason Malmuth writes about this a lot. In "Gambling Theory" I can't remember the exact wording but it the short run it is better to be lucky (if someone offers you $1000-1 on blackjack, but you only had one chance), but in the long run it is better to be good (which is how professional gamblers make money over the course of many thousands of hands).

There is an article about this topic in one of his Poker Essays books, but I haven't read it yet.

johnc · #3 02-21-2005, 04:32 PM

Sklanky writes about this in his book "Poker, Gambling, & Life". These specific topic dealt with why some big tournament winners come out of nowhere, win it all, and then seem to vanish. He attributed this to what he called "regression to the mean" or otherwise average players getting great cards. When the great cards stop coming their success drops to a level appropriate to their ability. Kindof a round about way to equate luck vs skill, but very insiteful.

set57hike · #4 02-21-2005, 05:52 PM

Just for the record, "regression to the mean" is a common concept from statistics.

MtDon · #5 02-21-2005, 06:17 PM

Unless the "fish" is a very good friend of yours, you want to lose this argument!

Find a way to agree that maybe, just maybe, luck is the most important thing. After all, if he is a "fish", then luck IS the most important thing for him.

medaugh · #6 02-21-2005, 08:39 PM

greatings to all this is my first post. In reply to the argument between you and your friend,in my humble opinion the novice player will always preceive the better player as one who is always lucky. When in reality, it is the skill of the player that makes them appear to be "luckey". So i guess what i'm saying is the argument seems to be a mute one because unless your friend wants to get better he will continue to think luck is most important. As for the question of any stats or studies between the two, sorry i just got here my self [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]