Simulation Request.

[DJA]

If you went all in with Black 2's against Jh Th, what is the winning percentage for the 2's (or the JTs)?

[Amanjyaku]

From freeware program Hold 'Em Shodown:

1,712,304 deals required. Start dealing? (y/n) [y]:


% chance of outright win 2c2s= 45.317245 JhTh= 53.276054
% chance of win or split 2c2s= 46.723946 JhTh= 54.682755
expected return, % of pot 2c2s= 46.020596 JhTh= 53.979404
fair pot odds:1 2c2s= 1.172940 JhTh= 0.852558
pots won: 2c2s= 788012.50 JhTh= 924291.50

[Mike Haven]

what i think is really interesting is that if you somehow knew there was going to be the 6d in the flop the win chances reverse to 53% for 2c2s to win and 47% for JhTh to win

this infers how "minor" differences in the texture of the flop matter so much

if it was the 6h then JhTh would win 56%

if it was the 6c then 2c2s would win 55%

[Aaron W.]

I haven't tested this, but I don't think the "6" is the special part of the card. It's really just the fact that JTs has at least one flush card guaranteed with the 6c; he always has at least a backdoor flush draw (if not a 4-flush or made flush). In fact, since it's an all-in situation, it doesn't matter where the 6c/6h comes from. So giving the board a 6c takes away a chance to draw to the flush.

Drawing at least 2 hearts in 4 draws (6h given to the board from the start): 26%

Drawing at least 3 hearts in 4 draws (6c given to the board from the start): 3%

(I think I did those computations right...). So you can see that there is a dramatic difference if you take away that one chance to draw to the flush.

Aaron W.

[Mike Haven]

yes and no - the 6 is the special part of the card

i'm sorry if the point of my post was not clear

i was trying to imply that comparing one hand to another in isolation is a somewhat pointless exercise in many cases

in the subject scenario, if the following cards are in the flop then they have these effects:

6c - JhTh wins 45%
7c - JhTh wins 48%
8c - JhTh wins 51%
9c - JhTh wins 54%

depending on what flops or turns or rivers, even down to one card within those portions of the hand, the chances of the original two-cards winning fluctuates wildly

for example:

AsAc against any, before flop - Aces win 85%
AsAc against any, with flopped KhKdx - Aces win 88%
AsAc against any, with flopped 7d6dx - Aces win 76%

[Phat Mack]

Good post! When I read your first one, I thought, "This can't be right," but sure enough it was.

i was trying to imply that comparing one hand to another in isolation is a somewhat pointless exercise in many cases

I think it's valuable information if you are going all in before the flop, but you've certainly pointed out the futility of taking it too far.

I ran all your examples with the cards on the board, then re-ran them with the same cards in the dead pile (as if they'd been flashed). The results weren't nearly as dramatic and clearly indicated the impact of a single card on the board. No wonder the oldtimers were so obsessed with burning the top card- knowing only one card could signify such major swings.

[AlanBostick]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
i was trying to imply that comparing one hand to another in isolation is a somewhat pointless exercise in many cases

[/ QUOTE ]

When I'm in the big blind with two chips left in a tournament, one opponent has raised and everyone else has folded, I don't give a good goddam about how my hand plays after the flop; I'm going to be all-in, and what matters is my hand's heads-up all-in equity versus my opponent's hand. How the hand plays post-flop isn't pertinent; there's no more action, and there's going to be a showdown.

If either I or my opponent know that a particular card is going to hit on the flop, well, there's something fishy going on.

Another way to look at your response: Heads-up, AA is a huge favorite against 22. But if you know a deuce is going to flop, the AA is now a significant dog. So what?

[Mike Haven]

yes, you are correct for your example

which is why i said "in many cases"

if you think i was nit-picking rather than trying to add intelligent comment to an interesting discussion i apologise for my lack of writing skills