I fold AA preflop

jcm4ccc · #1 02-19-2005, 06:14 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, $15 Turbo, Big Blind is t600 (3 handed) converter

SB (t10250)
Hero (t3100)
Button (t150)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, SB raises to t5650, 1 fold.

Final Pot: t5750

WarDekar · #2 02-19-2005, 06:15 PM

This is by far your best chance to double up and if you win you're basically tied with the big-stack, why are you folding?

jcm4ccc · #3 02-19-2005, 06:17 PM

actually, I lied. I had 73o. It just struck me that perhaps this is one time you might want to fold this. Interested in what others think.

TheAmp · #4 02-19-2005, 06:19 PM

The only reason to fold AA would be if first and second place recieve the same prize (such as in some step SNG's).

TruFloridaGator · #5 02-19-2005, 07:11 PM

I would only lay it down, if you had an ALL in & a call in front of you on the bubble with the short stack all in from the blinds as well. I would never lay down rockets 3 handed.

ilya · #6 02-19-2005, 07:32 PM

Terrible fold.

ZebraAss · #7 02-19-2005, 07:59 PM

i totally agree, 73 is the best you could hope for in this situation. Short stack isnt going out soon...you need to double up.

slickpoppa · #8 02-19-2005, 08:08 PM

to be able to answer this question, you must give us the payout structure

slickpoppa · #9 02-19-2005, 08:29 PM

Actually, this is a pretty easy question
The payout structure is 67.50, 40.50, 27.00. Let;s assume that if you fold, the short stack loses the next hand (a pretty safe assumption) So if you fold, you're EV is: (3100/13500)*(67.50) + (10,400/13500)*(40.50) = $46.7

If you call with the aces, you have about a 15% chance of finishing third and 85% chance of doubling up. If you double up, I will assume again that the short stack busts immediately. So when you call your EV is:
(.15)*(27) + (.85)*[(6200/13500)*(67.50) + (7300/13500)*(40.50)] = 49.01

So It's close, but it looks like you should call. Anyone who answered this quickly without doing the math should be berated. It is a close question, and is about as mathematically simple as any all-in problem can be.