Odds to win? question

[keikiwai]

Here is a question about overlays.

The general question is how do you decide on the overlay you'll accept, a hypothetical example follows.

Let's say the flop comes in LHE and you have a 2 to 3 chance of completing a flush by the river. You feel confident that your real pot odds will be 1 to 3 at the end of the hand. So if you would win every time you made the flush you should clearly go for it.... however.....

In this situation if you do not have A suited, you may make the flush and lose. Second even if you make the flush there is a 45% (9/47 + 12/46) chance that there will be a pair on the board. So there is a chance then that one of your opponents will have a four of a kind or full house.

So clearly if you cut your overlays too thin you may lose money eventhough the quick and dirty calculation would indicate that you shouldn't.

Is there a practical way of dealing with this in a live game, where it is rather difficult to first calculate your outs then subtract the chance of a higher hand showing at the end, then subtract the chance of a higher card showing in the same hand you have.

I try to make as good a guess I can whehter I'm drawing dead or will be outdrawn, but it's nothing quantitative. Can anyone do this quanitatively during a game?

thanks,
Peter.

[TStoneMBD]

im not going to give you the response that youre looking for because i dont feel like thinking very hard atm, about a topic that really isnt very practical. the reason i say this is that it is very rarely correct to fold a flush draw in a limit holdem game. this topic would be more practical if it were about something such as gutshots. if you want answers to questions like this, the mid-high stakes limit forums are your best bet. after you analyze enough of these situations away from the poker table, its fairly easy to determine whether you should pay to draw or not when in action.

[pif]

ofcourse flush isnt a sure win. for example:
u got: 4h7h Flop:Jh9h5d
with full 10 players table ur odds to win r 26% only (not 38%)

now let say that u flushd on the Turn: Jh9h5d2d
now after u have the flush ur odds to win r 61% only.
and now let look what hapns on the river:
* 1)river is not h: Jh9h5d2d4s: now ur odds to win r 80% only! not 100% because somone else may got better flush.

* 2)river paired: Jh9h5d2d2s : ur odds to win r 58% only. because the better flush,full house(23%), 4kind(1%). and against 2 pplz ur odds r 90%.

* 3)now let say u got Ah7h(nut flush) u flushd and river paired: Jh9h5d2d2s
ur odds to win against 9 pplz r 77%. and against 2 ppl (3 players) ur odds r 95%.


hope i helped u.

[keikiwai]

Thanks for the tip I'll try posting this at the other forum...
Peter.