Big Hand, Big Draw - What would you do?

[adamstewart]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets $2 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>



<font color="red">NOTE: CO has just bet into me, and is "All In."</font>

Do you raise here, risking bumping out players? Or do you go for overcalls with your "Top Pair-Monster Draw"??


(I'm pretty sure that I made the correct decision here, but it made me think for a bit, so I thought I'd post this ....)


Adam

[shadow29]

call.

[ThePenguin]

call

[QTip]

My initial thought is to simply call and slowplay for extra customers. However, the thing about this hand is that the pot is already large, and I don't mind protecting either...probably the right thing to do; however, this draw and hand is so huge, just about any draw someone else has gives my the nuts...in the heat of the moment, I would have just called, I'm sure of that.

[MisterKing]

calls and auto-bets/raises the turn more or less no matter what comes/what the prior action is to him. I don't think you have to worry about any of your opponents having sets given the PF action, so your basic draw to the nut flush seems like a lock to win, and of course every now and then you'll make a royal.

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
the thing about this hand is that the pot is already large, and I don't mind protecting either...

[/ QUOTE ]

Against what? Another gutshot? I don't see many hands that we're worried about here... hell, we WANT the gutter draws to play against us theoretically, don't we?

Here's the specifics:
-Gutshot draws with a ten are drawing to 3 outs (the Qs gives hero a royal). Little do they know that these 3 outs are dirty as hell, since they'll be splitting at best and losing to a flush at worst.

-Likewise, gut draws with a Queen are in bad shape. One of the tens the're looking for is gone, meaning they have at best three outs, and no re-draws to either a winning flush or a royal. They can hit their winner (Tc/Th/Ts -- 6.67% shot) on the turn and still lose to either a flush or a royal. Nine times in 45 they'll be drawing dead on the turn.

-Mathematically, we may not even be afraid of a made straight, provided that the Qs hasn't been dealt yet. We lose 4BB when this is the case and we don't improve (he bets turn, we auto raise, he 3-bets, we call... then we call the river), but make that much and more when we hit (~35% of the time) and villian doesn't slow down. Again, nine times in 45 they'll be drawing dead on the turn.

[Bremen]

What about single pair hands? A K or J on the turn sinks this hand, we'd also like to be able to win unimproved. I'd raise...

[Nick C]

Decisions like these give me trouble.

But, anyway, let's see. Hands that are currently ahead of us will at least call if we raise. Some hands we're beating do pose somewhat of a threat. A worse ace could go on to chop in a number of ways. A hand like K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] can pull ahead on five turn cards, as can Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

I think ace-rag will call one and might call two. A pair of kings or jacks might come along as well, especially if the hand also contains a gutshot. Any flush draws will also stay in, which of course we like.

Hands we're way ahead of may very well fold to a single bet, no matter what we do.

Also, since there's an all-in player, we get to see whether or not we make a royal regardless of the action behind us. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I think I like raising, but I'm not sure. Bringing any gutshots (that don't contain a pair) that would have folded to a raise along for a single bet wouldn't be so bad. Plus, call/3-betting would be fun, if we would be given a chance to do that.

Anyway, though, part of my thinking is that, while our draw is huge, our actual made hand isn't all that strong and is kind of vulnerable. So, given the pot size that already exists, I think I'd raise.

[adamstewart]

C'mon... where are opinions from the likes of sthief, CDC, sfer, StellerWind, bernie ......


Adam

[krishanleong]

I raise. You have large equity.

Krishan