BB excitement

cnfuzzd · #1 02-16-2005, 06:58 PM

I think this is debatable all the way down post the pf check...

second orbit at table.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO (poster) checks, 2 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, CO raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (10.16 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO calls.

Final Pot: 14.16 BB
Main Pot: 14.16 BB, between CO and Hero.

peace

john nickle

djr · #2 02-16-2005, 07:03 PM

I think the flop is fine. Your hand isn't great but given you had a free flop in the BB the others can't know you didn't hit two pair or something so a semi-bluff is warranted.
I think the turn check/raise was wrong, given you picked up a flush I would have either bet out or check/called
River is good.

SparkyDog · #3 02-16-2005, 07:30 PM

hmm... I'm not sure I like the turn check-raise unless you have a read on the guy as a one who can fold to a T C/R of a scare card. basically players on the second level of thinking. it seems safe to say you're drawing after the flop raise, so unless you have some bluff equity is just putting in two bets when you only have to put in one.

the river check-raise is fine, I don't think he'll raise a stop and go so i doubt you'll be able to get a threebet in.

runa · #4 02-16-2005, 07:41 PM

I think the pot is too small to make that turn CR really worthwhile. Representing the a monster only works if you have a good read and figure the other player to fold to aggression or get a free river, but otherwise not good. Once he 3-bets you, I'm not sure I go so far as to raise the river afterwards so I shut down for sure on the river UI. Are you sure the limit label is right? Looks kind of like a 15/30 hand.

admiralfluff · #5 02-16-2005, 07:46 PM

I hate the turn check raise. What's the point meat man? Bet out, call a raise. If he was trying to take a stab at you on the flop, he'll probably fold to a turn bet, but might actually call down a check raise. If he's ahead of you, there's no way he's folding. If he is decent, which you cannot know as you have not been at the table long, you may have given his club draw a free card. Considering how the hand played, river looks good to me.

gaming_mouse · #6 02-16-2005, 09:26 PM

c/call the turn. you have no fold equity here, if that was the idea. other than that, i don't see why you did it.

i like the river, thought it's a little dangerous. this guy seems plenty aggressive though, so i think you were right to assume that he would not check behind.

gm

Shillx · #7 02-16-2005, 09:48 PM

The turn check/raise isn't as bad as people think it is. It isn't quite as good as a check/call if the villian will never fold/3-bet but it is close EV wise as long as you have a good river strategy. If the villian will lay down like 15-20% of the time, then check/raising might be the best play.

We will hit our draw 26% of the time and there is 4.2 BB in the pot. Assume that the villian will not 3-bet/fold. On the river, the pot will be 8.2 BB so our bluffing % on the river = .26/9.2 = 2.8% of the time.

Let's assume that the villian will always fold to a river bet. It doesn't matter what the villian does on the river because we are playing perfectly.

So we win 6.2 BB - 28.8% = + 1.79 BB
We lose 2 BB - 71.2% = - 1.42 BB

Net: + .37 BB/Hand.

By check/calling the turn the pot will be 6.2 BB on the river. We will be bluffing .26/7.2 = 3.6% of the time.

Again villian will always fold to a river bet.

Win 5.2 BB - 29.6% = + 1.54 BB
Lose 1 BB - 70.4% = - .70 BB

Net: + .84 BB/Hand.

Let's say the villian will fold to the turn check/raise 10% of the time and he will never 3-bet. That alone increases our equity to .853 BB/Hand. This number comes from this equation (.37*.9 + 5.2*.1). So if the guy will fold 50% of the time (and never 3-bet) our expectation is 2.79 BB/Hand.

Brad

Okay so here is our EV if he 3-bets. We will never bluff the river in this case.

Get one bet on the river:

Win 8.2 BB - .26 = 2.13 BB
Lose 3 BB - .74 = - 2.22 BB

Net: - .09 BB/Hand

Get 2 bets on the river:

Win 9.2 BB - .26 = 2.39 BB
Lose 3 BB - .74 = - 2.22 BB

Net: + .17 BB/Hand

So let's say that the villian will 3-bet us 20% (we get 2 bets on the river), will fold 10% and will just call 70%. Here is our EV.

5.2*.1 + .17*.2 + .37*.7 = .81 BB/Hand.

The check/raise really isn't that bad imo.

cnfuzzd · #8 02-16-2005, 10:51 PM

i think your standard 3/6 opponent will fold a naked 7 here on the ace a lot more than people are expecting. Pretend your hero, and have 78 or some such. Can you call the checkraise, and, if so, why do you call the river? I think there is enough fold equity, and if not, im giving myself roughly 16 outs.

Shills with me though, maybe i should reconsider [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

peace

john nickle

Shillx · #9 02-16-2005, 10:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i think your standard 3/6 opponent will fold a naked 7 here on the ace a lot more than people are expecting. Pretend your hero, and have 78 or some such. Can you call the checkraise, and, if so, why do you call the river? I think there is enough fold equity, and if not, im giving myself roughly 16 outs.

Shills with me though, maybe i should reconsider [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

peace

john nickle

[/ QUOTE ]

Crap I didn't even notice that you had a pair of sevens here. That makes the check/raise even more correct. Or does that make it worse because I'm telling you it makes it better? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Brad

cnfuzzd · #10 02-16-2005, 10:57 PM

one day shill, you will see that path and understand that i was born to poker. I am the distillation of poker skill poured into a human form. This day will arive when i beat you with 93o in the main even of the WSOP and then we go buy a brothel and proceed to not remember the next several months....

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

jk, i know you are going to beat me. I suck at tournies....

peace

john nickle