Party 5/10: Small set facing turn c/r from BB

PennDisc · #1 02-15-2005, 11:58 AM

Villain hasn't gotten out of line in the 30 or so hands I've played on this table. Unfortunately I don't have a better read than that yet. Anyone play any street differently? Preflop I called the 2 bets because I was on the button with a pocket pair and 3 players were already in, with the BB likely to follow.

On the turn, the BB already check-reraised the flop and comes in for a check-raise again on the turn, so I thought there was a chance I was beat by a straight out of the BB (I ruled out QQ and 88 based on preflop and flop play respectively). After the turn action, it's unlikely that MP1 has QQ either. Does anyone raise the turn for value after the BB check-raised twice? Even if he's got the straight I've got outs, but he'll just cap it if he does which might knock out the other 2 guys and hurt my odds. But if I'm ahead, I'm potentially leaving 3 bets on the table by not raising. With 4 to a straight on the board is anyone raising the river against the BB?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB (Villain) calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Villain checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, Hero calls, Villain 3-bets, MP1 caps, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Villain calls.

Turn: (15.20 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Villain checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets, Villain raises, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

River: (23.20 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Villain bets, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 25.20 BB

Comments?

slogger · #2 02-15-2005, 12:48 PM

The following may just be wishful thinking on my part, but I believe I'm still ahead often enough to 3-bet the turn.

BB cannot have 88 given the flop action, and QQ would have been played very oddly to this point. I think 44 is very a real possibility, and there's an outside chance of Q8, but the flop action doesn't make a ton of sense for that holding.

A made straight also seems like a real longshot, unless it's 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

With 10 outs (3.5 to 1) to beat a straight plus the chance that you're still ahead going to the river and 3 opponents likely coming along, I think there is value in a 3-bet. If it's capped, you're probably up against a straight, but you must call down because of the possibility of 44.

PokerBob · #3 02-15-2005, 01:15 PM

I raise the turn. He could also just have 2-pair, as you haven't yet given him the chance to slow down.

2planka · #4 02-15-2005, 01:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Even if he's got the straight I've got outs, but he'll just cap it if he does which might knock out the other 2 guys and hurt my odds. But if I'm ahead, I'm potentially leaving 3 bets on the table by not raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't worry about hurting your odds here. Worry about flush (MP1) and straight draws. Jam this. Villain has TP - KQ/QJ/QT and is protecting it with his c/r.

chief444 · #5 02-15-2005, 01:36 PM

This is an interesting one. Here's my take. Villain's flop 3-bet and turn check doesn't necessarily mean a draw given that MP1 capped. He could easily just be going for another check/raise with 44, maybe even 45s for the flopped 2-pair, AQ (unlikely but possible). It would seem odd to 3-bet the flop though with 67 given the flop action and that there are two clubs on the board, unless he has exactly 67 of clubs.

However, MP1 seems to obviously have two high clubs the second he checks the turn. MP2 is also on some sort of draw, clubs being likely. So 44 I think is a good possibility and I'm 3-betting this turn. And you do have outs to improve against a straight.

PennDisc · #6 02-15-2005, 01:37 PM

Well someone else capped his flop reraise, so there has been opportunity for him to slow down, yet he still came with a turn checkraise again. That being said, I think you're right that it's a mistake to not 3-bet as it's likely they're all drawing basically dead (except for the guy with the flush draw) and will still call.

chief444 · #7 02-15-2005, 01:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has TP - KQ/QJ/QT and is protecting it with his c/r.

[/ QUOTE ]
The way to protect the hand would be to lead into a likely raise, not check/raise trapping the field. I'm not saying TP good kicker isn't a possibility. But it is unlikely.

2planka · #8 02-15-2005, 01:52 PM

Should have said "trying to protect TP."

Not trying to split hairs, but I'm not seeing why TPGK is less likely than 76. An unknown player playing from the blind plays Qx like this a lot of the time against a draw heavy board.

I'm inclined to think our hand is good here

chief444 · #9 02-15-2005, 01:58 PM

I don't understand how you feel the flop 3-bet would indicate he is trying to protect top pair. He is certainly playing this as a very strong made hand. I believe 44 is most likely. I'm not ruling out a Q. But the play makes it less likely, not more likely.

2planka · #10 02-15-2005, 02:13 PM

I guess I'm not giving the villain enough credit as a poker player.

I've seen this exact play from average players thinking that they have to "make the draws pay" as that "book of suspect quality" (Ed's term) puts it. He's out of position with what he thinks is the best hand.

Come to think of it, I've also seen AA played like this from the blind.

What I'm saying is that with no real read I'm tending not to give villain credit for a well-palyed hand here. If he has 76 or 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or whatever then we're beat.

That's where my thinking is. I'm probably wrong not to give the villain credit here, though, as you say. Point taken. Good discussion.