Blind defense thought experiment

[Nate tha' Great]

Suppose that you're playing in a very aggressive limit hold 'em game against fairly tough opponents. You feel that you have an edge in this game, but not a large edge.

Suppose now that you are in the big blind. It's folded to the button who open-raises. He will do with about 40-50% of his hands, including a typical mix of pairs, aces, broadway hands, as well as some random suited and connecting hands. The button respects your play, but he knows that you're capable of aggression too and will play back at you when warranted, and sometimes when unwarranted.

We'll assume that the small blind has folded.

Suppose that the dealer is a friend of yours and he offers you the following proposition: he will deal any three-card flop that you like. However, you will not be able to look at your hole cards until the turn betting round. The Button will not be aware that you have not looked at your cards until the turn, nor will he know when you do look at your cards.

Two-part question:

1) Is this a winning proposition for you?

2) What three-card flop would you most like to see?

[partygirluk]

ii) Something like 87 suited should be scary enough that, combined with aggresion, you can push him off most hands (or get lucky and flop something yourself).

[Chris Daddy Cool]

i'm going to take a stab and assume you want a flop that isn't likely to hit his range of hands here.

i'd think the less cordinated the better because you'll get called down/played back at too often with a coodrinated board if he thinks you're semibluffing with draws and he has a somewhat showdonwable pair or A (even K) high type hand.

i assume this could be profitable if you can get a good range of his raising hands and put out a flop that is least likely to hit him in terms of pairing up or giving him a draw.

so i'll say 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

or perhaps 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

these aren't based off of anything mathematical or factual or even logical, just a "hunch".

[Michael Davis]

I definitely think two is wrong. It's just too easy to call down with high cards here. I think T72 is close but something like T75 is just a bit better.

-Michael

[fnord_too]

1. I don't think this is a winning proposition for you. You have less information than and are out of position against a strong player.

2. I think I go with something like 567 suited or two tone and get to the turn for one additional small bet. A flop like that will be less likely to hit my opponent (except maybe for the suit), so if it happens to hit me I should be in decent shape on the turn where I can hopefully offset the 1.5 BB I paid in the blind.


I suppose another way to go is to ask for something like TJQ or 9JK and reraise preflop and play the flop and turn very aggressively. Or ask for Axx and do the same thing. You will probably win a smallish pot when villain has a small pair, a weak ace (in the first) or high cards that don't connect (in the second), but it is going to cost you when he hits the flop or plays back on the turn when you finally see your cards and they are rags.

[memphis57]

I can't make it profitable but I think I can get it back close to 50-50. Before the flop, the button will have the edge, because he will (should) only play a hand that beats two random hands. So I'd ask for a flop of trips below tens (222-999). Button is more likely than me to have at least one card T or higher, so I have a slight edge on scoring a quad, and then we have equal chances of pairing one of our cards on the turn/river to score a full house. However, if nobody pairs, he's more likely to take it on a high card so it's probably still under 50-50 for me. With SB's money in the pot and check-calling all the way (but withthe option of pot-building if I hit), I'd need like 45-48% odds of winning to make it profitable, and my odds would probably be slightly below that.

[mmcd]

I 3-bet preflop and tell the dealer to put up AAJ.

[Michael Davis]

The button doesn't know you aren't going to fold and he doesn't know you're not looking at your cards.

-Michael

[LinusKS]

[ QUOTE ]
I 3-bet preflop and tell the dealer to put up AAJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the 3-bet, although my initial thought is an uncoordinated A - something like A72 rainbow.

If you three-bet preflop and bet into him when an A hits the board, it will be hard for him not to credit you.

On the other hand, he'll have an A quite a bit less than 50% of the time himself.

Putting two aces up makes a flop bet look more bluffish, especially since he might think you'd check/call a genuine A, since top trips hu is pretty strong.

[mmcd]

I don't know about you, but when I 3-bet a TAG steal raiser from one of the blinds, I am betting out every single flop 100% of the time, regardless of whether I have AA and the flop comes AA7 rainbow, or black 8s and the flop comes AKQ of hearts.

When a single A flops: 1) Bayes theorem says it's more likely he has one than when 2 of them flop, not that this is really the case here since we are controlling the flop, BUT he doesn't know this, and; 2) He's more likely to try and take a stab at the pot somewhere along the line postflop, because many of the hands you will be 3-betting preflop will be pocket pairs < AA.