Question on this sports betting strategy....

Chuckster · #1 02-14-2005, 03:15 PM

I have a freind who uses this startegy he calls the "parlay system" and he swears that it works? It seems risky and I wanted to hear people's opinions on it.

His goal each bet is to make $150.00 and he bets about 4-5 games a night. What he does is make a $250.00 bet on whatever team he likes, and then opens up a $100.00 parlay with the opposite team. He will do this with all 5 games for the whole week.

If he wins the bet, then obviously he makes his goal of $150.00 for that 1 bet. If he loses, he has a -275.00 on his account, but there will be a $100.00 open parlay that he saves for Monday night.

At the end of the week, he will have anywhere from 10-35 $100.00 open parlays to play with. His theory is that he only has to win a small %age of his bets (on real bad weeks), and that he will have enough money (2.6 to 1) left in all the open parlays, that he can cross them in 1 game (close half of them with 1 team and the other half with the other team), and guarantee himself $$$.

I have tried every "strategy" imaginable and have come to the conclusion that there is no way to beat sports betting. This strategy seems to make sense but is there any mathamatical way to show what percentage of his bets he would need to win in order to guarantee he makes a profit for the week. Assume 35 bets per week, each exactly the same way ($250.00 with a $100.00 open paraly on the opposite team)

Thanks in advance

Chuckster · #2 02-14-2005, 03:24 PM

I think I figured it out and it looks like you still need to win over 50% of the time to have a decent profit. I wonder if you increase the amounts (IOW, maybe 400 per bet and 250 for parlay) if the %age you need to win goes down since you will have more money invested in the 2.6 to 1 that a parlay pays.

Hojglad · #3 02-15-2005, 03:18 AM

If sports betting were beatable with a strategy as simple as this, do you think casinos would offer it? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Thunder · #4 02-15-2005, 07:20 AM

Only way to win in sport betting is that you play only games with +EV (probability*odds>1). Basically this means that you have to calculate probabilities much better than bookmarkers. There isn't anykind of strategies which will work, unless games EV is positive.

Paul2432 · #5 02-15-2005, 02:06 PM

I think your friend would make a lot more money if he just bet $150/game and forgot about the parlays. If he is truly making money with this system it is because he is making good picks. The parlay system has nothing to do with it, and is in fact costing him money.

Let's look at the parlays independently. Suppose I do two $100 parlays using three games where I use one game in common and play opposite sides. I will either win one parlay or lose both. When I win one, I gain $160. When I lose both, I lose $200. Per game, I am risking $100 to win $80.

Now let's look at the $250 bets. With these I am risking $275 to win $250.

When the two bets are combined, your friend is essentially risking $195 to win $150. This is clearly terrible, because if he just bet $150, he would be risking $165 to win $150.

If I were you I would urge your friend to abandon his system immediately.

Paul

olavfo · #6 02-15-2005, 02:31 PM

If I have understood this correctly your friend is placing wagers on both outcomes in the same match. One team's straight win and the other team in parlays?

Then the bookie overround will slowly kill him. It's about the most stupid thing you can do. In poker terms it's analogous to paying double rake and it will bleed your bankroll slowly dry.

Tell him to stop.

olavfo

P.S. You can beat sports betting, but only through hard work. Sports handicapping is tough, but rewarding.