A Step 5 fold must people will hate

[John Hurst]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (5 handed) converter

UTG (t1985)
MP (t860)
Button (t4005)
SB (t575)
Hero (t2575)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1985 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t2435

I know the Chip EV calculation will dictate a call, but there was more going on in this instance. Myself and UTG were the only players showing any aggression. The 2 small stacks were clearly hanging on for 4th. The most likely hands I put UTG on were:

1) Small pocket pair - 30%
2) 2 big cards - 50%
3) Complete bluff - 20%

I hated the thought of being crippled on a coin flip when I was in a great position to steal more chips in later hands. My main intent in these tournies is not to slide into 4th but to win the tournies. I honestly thought at the time that avoiding this allin and stealing blinds later was the best way to win. Afterwards, I felt weak tight and thus I post here for opinions.

Thanks in advance,
John

[11t]

I dont think this is a bad fold.

AK is overrated.

[jedi]

Given the situation, and the fact that you've recognized that small stacks are playing very, very tight, I don't think this is a bad fold.

[Awesemo]

You're not really going to get a good time to steal like you say. The MP and SB in this hand are too shortstacked to bully around. I think this situation dictates a call.

[The Yugoslavian]

Why do I hate this?

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I think it's fine.

You want to be first in here and have more than enough chips to put other stacks to big decisions. Plus, there are two stacks that are hanging on by a thread. You also don't want to have your stack crippled by calling off most of your chips without a significant advantage. For instance, tthe UTG villian could have a dominated A but it's probably more likely he has any pocket pair or a hand without an A or a K.

If this was the MP or SB I'd call.

Yugoslav

[pokerraja]

I think this fold is correct. You still have over T2500. There are 2 shorter stacks who will be forced to make moves very soon. 1 of them will most likely bust out then.

Also, your only double up away from being chip leader. That can come later. Of course, if roles are reversed here, a push is of essence.

[imcastleman]

Even if you are a slight dog, you should call here. You are giving up too much expected value by folding. I'm sure someone can do an ICM calculation using the appropriate payout structure to prove that you gain more EV by calling vs. folding even if you are up against a pocket pair. There are only six hands that the utg player could have that would make this a bad call and those are AA and KK.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if you are a slight dog, you should call here. You are giving up too much expected value by folding. I'm sure someone can do an ICM calculation using the appropriate payout structure to prove that you gain more EV by calling vs. folding even if you are up against a pocket pair. There are only six hands that the utg player could have that would make this a bad call and those are AA and KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this logic, but it is VERY close. Lots depends on UTG's play, but then again, there ARE two other small stacks that could bust before you even should you lose the hand. More often than not overall though, I agree and would call here.

[pokerraja]

I think it important for us to know if you are bankrolled for step 5's? or are you starting from step 1, or 2? Because if you are a regular player and buy-in directly, then a call makes more sense here. But if you are a "trying to hit a lick" and just sneak into the money then fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

Well, not surprising, I disagree with Daliman. Poker is a game of decisions. Sometimes a good decision is to fold a solid hand, and sometimes a good decision is to risk a crappy one.

FWIW, I'd fold this hand. But I get blasted for my ideas, so who knows if it's worth any salt. There are far too many FE reasons that outway CEV, and probably $EV analysis. The only people happy with your calling are MP and SB.