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#1
02-10-2005, 12:44 PM
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I think I know the answer to this question, but
How do you calculate the odds on this hand?
I call an mp raise from lp with KQ. The flop comes KQT. The ep checks. What percentage of the time are you ahead, assuming your opponent is a tight, tricky player? I made the following assumptions (you can make your own if you like): The villain's play was consistent with the following hands - AA-TT, and AK-AT. Is it correct to bet here? How does it change things if one of the blinds had come along? 
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#2
02-10-2005, 03:01 PM
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Re: I think I know the answer to this question, but
[ QUOTE ]
How do you calculate the odds on this hand? I call an mp raise from lp with KQ. The flop comes KQT. The ep checks. What percentage of the time are you ahead, assuming your opponent is a tight, tricky player? I made the following assumptions (you can make your own if you like): The villain's play was consistent with the following hands - AA-TT, and AK-AT. Is it correct to bet here? How does it change things if one of the blinds had come along? [/ QUOTE ] You don't mention suits, so I assume the flop is rainbow. Assuming your range is correct, there are 21 hands you are behind. (Your outdraw outs are listed in paren): 16 AJ (4) 1 KK (0) 1 QQ (2) 3 TT (4) There are 40 hands you are currently ahead, all of which can outdraw you (outs in paren): 6 AA (9 + running pair) 6 JJ (10) 8 AK (7) 8 AQ (7) 12 AT (9) So, you are behind 21/61 with an average of 78/21 outs. With 2 cards to come, you will win ~16% of the time by the river when you are behind on the flop. If you miss the turn, with one card to come you will win ~8% You are ahead 40/61 time, and your opponent has an average of 334/40 outs. Note: all of your opponents outs rank 9 or higher. You will win ~67% of the time by the river with 2 cards to come. If he misses the turn, you will win 81% with one card to come. These calculations have not taken into account backdoor flush draws or runner runner for either side. So, 21*.16 + 40*.67 / 61 = 30.16/61 chance to win by the river with 2 cards to come, or basically 50-50. In other words, 50% pot equity. Which means, heads up, you can bet if checked to. Even if you are check raised, you are fine. If there is a blind in the hand, it would definitely be correct to bet or raise, since you will win more than 33% of the time. I will say that over half the deck (2-8) doesn't help him, so heads up, you definitely can bet or raise if a blank hits the turn, because you will be a favorite. 21*.08 + 40*.81 = 34.08/61 = 55.8% favorite. However, proceed with caution if a 9 or higher hits the turn (unless it is a K or Q).
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#3
02-10-2005, 04:07 PM
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Re: I think I know the answer to this question, but
What about J9?
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#4
02-10-2005, 06:06 PM
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Re: I think I know the answer to this question, but
[ QUOTE ]
What about J9? [/ QUOTE ] Because he and I both assumed AA-TT, AK-AT. If J9 should be included in the range of possible holdings, so should KT, QT, 88 and a host of other hands you are well ahead of.
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#5
02-10-2005, 07:21 PM
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Re: I think I know the answer to this question, but
[ QUOTE ]
Assuming your range is correct, there are 21 hands you are behind. (Your outdraw outs are listed in paren): 16 AJ (4) 1 KK (0) 1 QQ (2) 3 TT (4) [/ QUOTE ] Even against KK he is able to outdraw. A turn and river Q would do the trick.
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#6
02-10-2005, 07:34 PM
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Re: I think I know the answer to this question, but
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Assuming your range is correct, there are 21 hands you are behind. (Your outdraw outs are listed in paren): 16 AJ (4) 1 KK (0) 1 QQ (2) 3 TT (4) [/ QUOTE ] Even against KK he is able to outdraw. A turn and river Q would do the trick. [/ QUOTE ] You are correct. As I said, I didn't include the runner runner and backdoor outs in the calculation.
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#8
02-10-2005, 11:14 PM
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Re: I think I know the answer to this question, but
[ QUOTE ]
Good analysis, Binion. What do you mean when you say I have an average of 78/21 outs? Thanks. [/ QUOTE ] 16 AJ (4) = 64 outs 1 KK (0) = 0 1 QQ (2) = 2 outs 3 TT (4) = 12 outs 64 + 2 + 12 = 78 outs/21 hands means on average, when you are behind, you have 78/21 outs, or 3.7143. Most of the time you will have 4. Sometimes you will have less. Rarely, you will have 0. For the range, you will average 78/21 outs.
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#9
02-11-2005, 06:05 AM
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Re: I think I know the answer to this question, but
How about this: (Calculations are estimates considering a 9 player table)
1.) 0.6% of the time, you are 1.7% to win the hand against KK 2.) 0.6%, you are 10.4% to win against QQ 3.) 1.9%, you are 18.4% to win against TT 4.) 5.1%, you are 17.9% to win against AJ 5.) 5.1%, you are 18.5% to win against J9 If A=frequency of the hand being at the table and B=your chance to win. (A1*B1)+(A2*B2)+(A3*B3)+(A4*B4)+(A5*B5)= 2.2786% 1300 out of every 1500 hands, you have the best hand at the time and of the 200 times that you have the worst of it, you will win <5 times. Of the 1300, you have the best of it, four to a straight will hit about 650 times in which there's a good chance that you fold. So, out of 1500 hands, you can only expect to actually win the pot at showdown 655 times, so for every $5 bet that you make or call, there needs to be at least $11.45 in the pot from this perpsective. This would be an implied odds situation where you are 87.7% to have the best hand and many times because there is a large chance that someone is drawing to a straight. This is a good limit situation to bet and a positional decision in NL that also incorporates table atmosphere, the player in the pot, along with the quantity of players that saw the flop. This is a situation where you have to think, "Who would bet this flop?" and "Who would call my bet?" The numbers would tell me to play this hand through, but to play it cautiously on the flop as you are a slight underdog to the straight draws.
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