Breaking the cycle of statistical obsession . . .

SuitedSixes · #1 02-10-2005, 12:51 AM

In light of the recent posts about just how meaningless short term results are, I am going to attempt to break my own cycle of statistical obsession. Beginning at midnight local time (I'm in AZ), I am only going to look at and update my spreadsheet on even-numbered Sundays. I will still update my tournament histories in PokerTracker, but I will not click on the little trophy. My hope is that this will stop A)my illusions of grandeur when I am running well and B)my feelings of dispair when I am running poorly. Anyone with me?

P.S.
After I made the mistake of bragging in the forum that I hit my first grand slam, I have not won a tournament since.

P.P.S.
I am also a salad-dodger, but I'll deal with that later.

Irieguy · #2 02-10-2005, 02:01 AM

I went farther than that once last year and just threw my spreadsheet away:

delet the spreadsheet

I'm just as messed up in the head now as I ever was... but for a few glorious weeks I didn't know exactly how well I was doing.

I hope you have better success with your plan than I did.

Irieguy

Irieguy · #3 02-10-2005, 02:15 AM

I also stumbled across an even older thread... when I first started the believe that spreadsheets were the work of the devil:

spreadsheets suck

I guess it's a phase we all go through.

Irieguy

SuitedSixes · #4 02-10-2005, 02:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
But here's the problem: I used to have two kinds of poker emotions-
1. Running good (happy), and
2. Running bad (sad).
Now I have 8 poker emotions:
1. Winning at a rate greater than my long term ROI (happy)
2. Winning at exactly my long term ROI (indifferent)
3. Winning at slightly less than my long term ROI (sad)
4. Realizing that I'm negative for 10 tournaments (pissed)
5. Realizing that another OOTM will drop my ITM% below 42% (depressed)
6. Realizing that I've lost 78% of the time with the best of it over the last 57 showdowns (raging hatred)
7. Realizing that I'm setting a personal OOTM record (homocidal)
8. Completing detailed analysis of past 100 SNGs, deciding to stop playing between 1200 and 200pm, tightening up 5 handed, eliminating the suited-connector limp from my early stage play, becoming less aggressive with weak kings short-handed and more aggressive with big Queens, and finally figuring out how to stop leaking when getting check-raised only to get 7 consecutive 4ths and 3 10ths in the next 10 $55 SNGs (suicidal).

[/ QUOTE ]

I have two emotions right now:
1) I'm winning but my ROI, ITM, SOMJSNGI (figure that one out!) are not high enough.
2) I'm losing, how am I ever going to get my ROI, ITM, SOMJSNGI up?

Progress:
1 tournament in my newest "session" with a 2nd place finish (got sucked out on the flop) and I resisted the urge to see what impact it had on my stats.

JoeTable · #5 02-10-2005, 03:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I went farther than that once last year and just threw my spreadsheet away:

delet the spreadsheet

I'm just as messed up in the head now as I ever was... but for a few glorious weeks I didn't know exactly how well I was doing.

I hope you have better success with your plan than I did.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Very early in my poker career, I had the same problem. I never kept any records, but then I'd start running good and think "hey, I need to keep track of this to see just how well I'm doing". No sooner did I start keeping books did I start to run bad. Then I had to stare at all those red numbers and get freaked out. "It's the spreadsheets fault!! I'm focused on the results and not the poker. I'm getting rid of this thing".

You get over that after a few years. Now, I can't imagine not keeping books. And those red numbers don't scare me no more. One thing you learn, and the sooner the better is this...

VARIANCE!!

Losing happens.

The Yugoslavian · #6 02-10-2005, 03:45 AM

Frozen put it best in this thread:

The Frozen Method

I hope he's still alive. I was a big Frozen fan for like the week I started posting and he still did.

Yugoslav

The Yugoslavian · #7 02-10-2005, 03:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I also stumbled across an even older thread... when I first started the believe that spreadsheets were the work of the devil:

spreadsheets suck

I guess it's a phase we all go through.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Is your e-penis really worth going through utter despair and turmoil every few months?

Or perhaps this question is rhetorical. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Yugoslav

SuitedSixes · #8 02-10-2005, 04:12 AM

I don't get it how you guys play drunk or otherwise impaired. Don't get my wrong, if it weren't for a medical condition that makes it -EV for me to drink I would do it more, I just make SUCH bad decisions when I do drink I couldn't imagine trusting myself to make hundreds of good ones in a SNG.

Trip Report: Suited Sixes last B&M Trip Drunk (accelerated)
Walk in with $25 and no ATM card. Played blackjack, and poker, and blackjack (in that order) gave two black chips to a woman I have no chance of scoring with. Walk out with $350. See what I mean? Poor judgement.

Irieguy · #9 02-10-2005, 04:19 AM

The great John Wooden said something once that I will never forget:

"If you want to get good at jumping... jump."

I think it's the most brilliant statement about coaching ever uttered.

Anyways... I'm really good at drinking.

Irieguy

The Yugoslavian · #10 02-10-2005, 04:25 AM

I never said that *I* play while on substances (besides the completely legal multitude of drugs I take every day anyway).

And Irie's quote of Wooden is spot on.

I want to get good at poker.....guess what I do every day after work?

I still need to work on scoring with really hot chicks as I don't practice that nearly often enough, [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

Yugoslav