Handling/Breaking Losing Streaks

[minwoo]

I seem to be on a big losing streak on the $33 SNG's on Party. Consistent OTMs followed by a third place and repeat. No matter what I do, I always end up busting on the bubble or earlier. If I push w/ TT at the 50/100 level, I get called by JJ. If I push w/ AK, I get called by 44 and lose. In addition, I also end up losing w/ the better hand pretty often. AK vs AQ, AK losing, AA losing to KK, etc. This is poker I know.

My question is..how do you guys handle these streaks? Do you guys just take a couple days off or keep playing until the streak breaks? Continuing to play until the streak breaks has had a success rate of 0% for me. After about 5 OTMs, if I keep playing I just end up w/ 10 OTMs. Anyone been successful in breaking a streak by just playing, playing, and playing?

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I seem to be on a big losing streak on the $33 SNG's on Party. Consistent OTMs followed by a third place and repeat. No matter what I do, I always end up busting on the bubble or earlier. If I push w/ TT at the 50/100 level, I get called by JJ. If I push w/ AK, I get called by 44 and lose. In addition, I also end up losing w/ the better hand pretty often. AK vs AQ, AK losing, AA losing to KK, etc. This is poker I know.

My question is..how do you guys handle these streaks? Do you guys just take a couple days off or keep playing until the streak breaks? Continuing to play until the streak breaks has had a success rate of 0% for me. After about 5 OTMs, if I keep playing I just end up w/ 10 OTMs. Anyone been successful in breaking a streak by just playing, playing, and playing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I can certainly comment from first hand experience here. I had a horrible run last September, and here's how I handled it:

one way to handle losing

Then things went very well for the next few months, and January started out great. But the last 2 weeks have been the worst I've ever had in terms of severity. In September I had a 30-day break even run that included a 20+ buy-in drop. Even though this last bad run still netted me over $1500 in 30 days, it included a 40 buy-in losing streak which is something I had never come close to before.

Things were horrible. I went through anger, denial, physical outbursts... the whole thing. But I kept losing and finally I just became accustomed to losing as a 60%+ favorite 12-16 times in a row every night. My approach this time was different than last time. I didn't move down in limits, I just decided to keep playing through it. It kind of worked in that I ended up showing a profit eventually. But a 300 SNG negative ROI streak will really mess with your head.

I took a hard look at my game during this stretch. I watched many HHs, and had others watch many of my hand histories, too. I tried to find the leaks, but when I would watch my tournaments in the replayer I was pretty happy with my play. My first place percentage was also staying at around 14%, even though my ITM was abysmal for over 400 SNGs... so I know I wasn't getting too timid.

Blaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. It sucked.

But things turned around eventually, as they always do. I've had a winning session every day for the past 5, and I'm winning 40% or so of my coin flips... which is all I ask. I've always told myself that if I could just win 40% of my coin flips and half of my 60-40 races over a short stretch I will win a lot of money.

Managing variance is really a pshychological endeavor. You just need to keep your head straight while you run badly so that you are in action and playing well when you start running better than average. A few times a year you will run really, really well and make a ton of money. The mistake most of us make is to allow our perspective to change during these hot runs and we redefine our expectations. It's difficult to wrap your mind around this concept, but making $10 a SNG means that you actually make $1 a SNG for several weeks, and then $50 a SNG for a few days.

That's just the nature of the beast.

Hang in there, minwoo. Analyze your game and get some help from somebody who knows what they're doing. Move down if you are in danger of going broke. Otherwise, keep playing and the probabilities will catch up with your opponents.

Good luck,

Irieguy

[Vetstadium]

I like to make sure I at least take one full day a week off of no poker stuff. Just to keep myself fresh.

[11t]

In January I went on a terrible run over Christmas break and went on a 30 buy in losing streak. It sucked but a lot of it was me getting angry about one bad beat in a tournament and then playing poorly as a result of that in the next. I also began playing tighter telling myself "I need this" as if altering a winning strategy is a good idea.

I would suggest that in the midst of a losing streak you simply go thru every tournament you lose an evaluate your game. Fix it where you have leaks and accept it when you get outdrawn.

most importantly NEVER GO ON TILT. I remember one night when I first started playing poker like a year ago where I lost like 6 straight tournaments so I stayed up all night "tryiing to get even." It was one of the worst nights of my poker life and I almost went broke until I realized that I wasn't thinking rationally and I needed to get up and leave before I lost it all.

I've never been on tilt since.

[bball904]

I think a break is a very good idea to interupt a losing streak. Even if it's mostly the cards that are the cause of the streak, the mental anguish of expecting to lose every coin flip, etc. keeps you from playing your best game. I play 55's exclusively, but I like to mix in 1/2 limit as a means to clear bonus dollars to give myself a break and keep fresh whether I'm running hot or cold. I did have an over 30 buy-in down streak in December over about 2 weeks and after 5 days of playing limit and a few multi's, I had a renewed spirit to attack the 55's again. It worked for me.

[minwoo]

Irieguy,
Great post. I was actually thinking of taking a break for a week or so. But your right, the probabilities will catch up.
The reason I felt compelled to post for advice was that I never encountered a streak this bad before. I started the 33's w/ a $1,500 bankroll. It quickly built to about $2,000. This is where my streak started. I now have a roll of around $1,300 and will immediately move down once I hit $1,000. Funny thing is I thought I would be owning the 33's because the play there is pretty nasty. The play is even more loose than the 22's and 11's in my opinion. I'm always short stacked at the later levels because I'm just sitting there in the early levels waiting for a premium hand to bust one of these loose wackos. Hopefully, the cards will come and my patience will pay off. The strategy against loose is TIGHT, right?

[swarm]

The first major losing streak is the worse... when I first started I turned $200 into $2000 in what seemed a blink of an eye.

At the height of the run I started creating some bad habits and loss all the discipline that got me their in the first place. I wouldn't take losing for an answer and would keep playing long sessions when I was tired, angry, etc... About lost it all...

One of the best pieces of advice I read was by some psychologist poster on this forum, I wish I could find that post. He really broke down your mental process and the sick cycle carosel mind set you get on when in a bad stretch. Variance is one cause but your response to Variance can really magnify the situation.

The summary of the advice was to really confront your thought process and your "irrational" rationalizations and identify them. When you start hearing those kicking again, GET THE [censored] AWAY FROM THE COMPUTER... DON'T PLAY... GO EXERCISE OR SOMETHING.

He then stated to write down your guidelines and borders, almost like a Poker Creed to yourself. I have about a 20 point bulletin word doc that I printed out and signed myself and Stapled right above where I play so it is in my vision at all times. It seems any time I sway from the list, my ROI plummets! Discipline is the key, but simply stating it doesn't work, write it down.

This is the quote of his I have at the top of this thing:

"I HAVE A PLAN. MY ROI WILL INCREASE IF I STICK TO THE PLAN. I AM WORSE THAN A [censored] FISH IF I DON'T STICK TO THE PLAN, BECAUSE I ACTUALLY KNOW HOW TO PLAY POKER."

It works, I've been on the best run I have ever been on by far since. The bulleted items seem simple but it is human nature to break discipline. Discipline is someting you have to be aware of!

[KenProspero]

Try opening up a file on your computer, in which you save every hand in which you put a bad beat on someone else, or mess up your play and it works out, etc.

When you get your losing streaks (which is usually the result of someone doing the same to you) open this file, and remember the times you got lucky.

Although the number of times you get beaten with a bad beat should far outnumber the times you win by sucking out, I find it comforting to remember that it really does go both ways with statistical regularity and predictability.