AKo with a KQ flop

kurosh · #1 02-05-2005, 03:02 AM

fold[/i], BB calls.

Flop: (8.66 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 folds, Button raises, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.33 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

River: (10.33 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.33 BB

Villain is 26/12/2.1. I was very close to mucking it on the turn. Does villain do this enough with draws to make it a profitable call down?

DemonDeac · #2 02-05-2005, 03:21 AM

what happened preflop? its cut off

kurosh · #3 02-05-2005, 03:31 AM

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (8.66 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP3 folds, Button raises, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.33 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

River: (10.33 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.33 BB

Oops

Jonny · #4 02-05-2005, 03:42 AM

mabye fold the river??? It's a pretty big pot though. This would be a tough laydown and may be incorrect. I think the PF and flop action is standard, as is the turn. I'd probably play it the same.

kurosh · #5 02-05-2005, 04:28 AM

I might as well analyze my own post because I'm bored and I've wanted to do this kind of analysis for a while.

Range of hands I put him on: 44, KQ, AJh, JTh, A4h.

Likelihood: KQ 50%
JTh 20%
44 15%
AJh 10%
A4h 5%

Why that distribution? A pure bluff is pretty much out of the question as he's not a maniac. QQ, KK and AK would be reraised PF. Those are the only other reasonable hands a person with those stats would call with. KQ is the most likely because the others are mostly draws and when he's in position, I don't think he'd cap with a draw. He would play a set of 4's exactly like that but purely based on the probability of flopping a set and it's a shady call PF, it's less likely. A4h, AJh, JTh would depend on the player. Many would not call with A4h PF but he is a bit loose and that is why it is less likely. AJh is a strong draw but still a draw so I dont know if he would cap with it. JTh is a huge draw and would probably be capped.

KQ 50% - 7 outs on the turn
JTh 20% - (2J, 3T, 3A, 8h) He has 16 outs
44 15% - 4 outs
AJh 10% - (2J, 9h) He has 11 outs to win and 3 to split.
A4h 5% - (2fours, 9h) He has 11 outs to win and 3 to split.

(7/46)*.5 + (30/46)*.2 + (4/46)*.15 + (35/46)*.1 + (35/46)*.05 = .3337

(3/46)*.1 + (3/46)*.05 = .00326

33.37% to win. .326% to split.

I don't think there is any folding equity on the turn and I am behind most of the time so raising is a no. I am getting 9.33:1 with a 2:1 chance of winning. Easy call down. I think I played it correctly.

(This is my first time analyzing a hand this in depth. If you see any mistakes please point them out.)

kurosh · #6 02-05-2005, 07:06 PM

It took me a long time to write that up and I think people may have missed it so bump :P

Perseus · #7 02-05-2005, 07:44 PM

I think a call here is correct, folding the river with a pot this big would be a mistake unless you had an excellect read on the player.

But I think after your excellent analysis you know that [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]