Trip 2s against All In early

Barcalounger · #1 02-04-2005, 11:04 AM

I've already doubled up against an idiot fish with middle pair, now I've hit my trips. But there's three clubs on the board and an all-in before me. Call here?

Party Poker $20+2 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (9 handed)

UTG (t690)
UTG+1 (t400)
MP1 (t1215)
MP2 (t775)
MP3 (t805)
Hero (t1780)
Button (t1265)
SB (t325)
BB (t745)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls t15, 1 fold, MP1 raises t30, Hero calls t30, 2 folds, BB calls t15, MP1 calls t30.

Flop: (t130) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB raises t715 (all-in), 2 folds, Hero ???.

etgryphon · #2 02-04-2005, 11:23 AM

Call...You will probably only only see a A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Which you are ahead of with a 3:1 advantage. He may have two clubs, but I would expect him to play it a little better than that. With the fact that he is in the BB, if he does have the flush you still have outs to the boat and if you loose you are still at 1000+ chip early which isn't bad. He has to have the flush better than 68% or 2 out of every three times to make this a -CEV move.

-Gryph

David100 · #3 02-04-2005, 12:17 PM

fold pre flop.

as u called it i would go all in.

David

etgryphon · #4 02-04-2005, 12:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
fold pre flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

With 1740 chips, I'm calling any pair in late position up to 5% of my stack because the overlay is so hugh. He only has to call 30 chips for this. No way I'm folding...

-Gryph

AA suited · #5 02-04-2005, 12:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
fold pre flop.

as u called it i would go all in.

David

[/ QUOTE ]

fold preflop to a min raise? what are you nuts? you're playing for set value.

you got the set on the flop, but on a scary board.

you have 10 outs to make a full house or quad. that's 2:1 odds by the river. however, you're only getting ~1:1 odds.

math says fold assuming you put him on a flush already. if you put him on a draw with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], then call.

Barcalounger · #6 02-04-2005, 01:10 PM

I was gonna reply to AA saying that the math outcome depends on whether you think trip 2s is ahead or behind after the flop. But while typing that reply I noticed that your post was edited to include it already. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] That was the real quandry, would someone with the nut flush raise all-in? This is a $22 tourney so I've seen much worse plays...

Without a read I put him on 4 different scenarios of which I'm in the lead in 3 of them:
Already got the flush, but not the nuts (maybe J high).
On the flush draw with A or K.
Overpair protection from me drawing to the flush.
Stone cold bluff.

AA suited · #7 02-04-2005, 02:44 PM

yup, thats the quandry.

personally, since my stack is double his, i would call.

i wish i knew what would be +ev here?

ps- it's a set of 2's, not trip 2's. if trip 2's then there would be two 2's on the board, and a flush is impossible. (suited 2's anyone? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

Barcalounger · #8 02-04-2005, 03:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]

ps- it's a set of 2's, not trip 2's. if trip 2's then there would be two 2's on the board, and a flush is impossible. (suited 2's anyone? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

[/ QUOTE ]

I never knew there was a distinction between trips and a set. Thanks man. I get closer and closer to "not complete poker 'tard" every day.

On the pre-flop fold: I would have if I didn't have position, or if the raise was any more than minimum. Honestly I was multi-tabling and made a snap decision that I still beleive was correct. If you wouldn't risk <2% of your chips in late position for set value then you are playing at a completely different level of TA from me.

Phoenix1010 · #9 02-04-2005, 06:07 PM

A set of deuces is kind of like a mackerel in the moonlight...
Had to say that.

Seriously though, I would advocate calling based on my own experience. I'd say he's just as likely to make this play with two pair or just the ace of clubs as he is with a small club flush, making this a probably +CEV move. Also, because you have him covered twice, you are not risking your tournament life.

Regards,
Steve

Barcalounger · #10 02-04-2005, 06:36 PM

Looks like the consensus is to call this bet, and I would agree. Either he was an idiot and pushing all in with the nuts, or he's an idiot and I'm taking this pot. Either way I know that anyone who makes this push won't be too much of a threat to win the tourney later. If you were wondering, here's the results:

Hero calls t715.

Turn: (t1560) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t1560) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

BB shows T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] a pair of tens.
Hero shows 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] three of a kind, twos.
BB finished in ninth place.
Hero wins 1560 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, twos.
Hero says "So long and thanks for all the fish."