Bad Beats

[wipke11]

I play 10-20 limit and 15-30 limit online. I recently had a great run and won a ton of money over a 3 day period. I came back on the 4th day to find the cards coming my way as well. However, it was nearly impossible to win as I continually lost to runner runners, straights, etc. and many times the hand I was up against was clearly dominated. I have been reading the Small Stakes Hold'em book and I can't figure out what to do now. Nearly all my profits from the 3 day run are gone.

I did some research and looked up all of my "Power Hands" or "Premium Hands" for my play on 1/31/05. I played 1,643 hands. I was dealt AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, and AQ a total of 81 times combined.

Of those 81 times I was up against AA or KK 10 times which is about 12%. It is astonishing because in most cases I had either AK or AQ several times.

I only won 45% of the time in which I was dealt all of these hands and that is clearly not consistent with the averages. Furthermore, I was the clear favorite in the hand 29 times and lost (many times to 3 outers or worse). Thats 36% in total! This is clearly against all odds.

I have listed several of the beats below: I have highlighted the hands where I was clearly in a dominating position (almost all of them I was) but several of them had 3 outs or less and hit miraculously.

AKo = AK off suit AKs = AK suited

AA loses to K9o, trip kings on river
AA loses to KJs, flush
AA loses to 55, set of 5's

KK loses to A7s, pair of aces
KK loses to 67s, flush

QQ loses to AQs, hit ace on turn
QQ loses to A2o, trip aces on flop
QQ loses to 9To, set on flop loses, staight to King
QQ loses to K9o, pair of kings
QQ loses to K5s, pair of kings

JJ loses to A2s, flop set and lose to runner runner flush
JJ loses to Q6o, pair of queens
JJ loses to QKo, 2 pair
JJ loses to 96o, 2 pair

TT loses to 57s, 2 pair on river
TT loses to AQo, pair of queens
AKs loses to 88, 1 card runner runner flush

AKs loses to TJs, pair of 10's
AKo loses to AQo, 2 pair
AKo loses to AQs, flush
AKo loses to AQo, 2 pair
AKo loses to K9s, pair of 9's
AKo loses to KJo, straight
AKo loses to 86o, 2 pair
AKo loses to QTo, pair

AQs loses to KTs, full house
AQo loses to QTo, trip 10's

[jtr]

And?

[Sasnak]

1,634 hands? I was sure someone would toss in their sample size commentary.

How about my KK losing to LP whom cold called 4 with a 34s and made his two pair on the river?

BE thankful you had a good three day run to offset your bad days. Some of us don't get the good runs as often as we'd like.

[mosquito]

Sh^t happens....welcome to the real world. Get your
head straight, play well. The long term is, err, well,
the LONG TERM.

[DeezNutz3]

I think you need to consider folding some of these big pairs on unfavorable boards, they don't need to go to showdown every time. Cut your losses when you're behind.