Pr (win) for top tourni player

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Prob (Victory) --Top Tourni Players
02/02/05 08:56 AM
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For purposes of discussion, let's say we are dealing with a $2000 buy-in NL HE tourni at the WSOP with 300 players. The average player has a 1/300 chance of winning. What chance does someone like Daniel Negreanu have of winning? My intuition is that his chance is around 10/300. I would say that if the average player has a 1/n chance of winning, then a top 10 tournament player is 3/n or 4/n, and a solid amateur (who has played in,say, twenty live tournaments, and plays 20-hrs of internet poker weekly) has a .5/n or .75/n chance. Comments....