Future Stock Market Returns

[adios]

Ray made the following statement in the post about the stock market being +EV:

[ QUOTE ]
yes they would show a profit. so it would be plus ev. but thing is whether it would show a greater profit than say bonds or gold or real estate. in the past it did mostly beat the competition. but not likely over the next 50 years.imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well what about this. I think the ex ante (future) equity risk premium will be much less than the ex post (past) equity risk premium. Stocks should do better than bonds over the next 50 years but maybe not. Ray for one doesn't think so and he's not alone btw.