#1
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Another Bubble Question
Blinds are 100-200, with a 25 ante.
Player 1 -- 175 chips Hero SB -- 700 chips Player 2 BB -- 9000 chips Player 3 -- 5125 chips Hero is dealt 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Everyone antes, Hero posts 100, Player 2 posts 200, Player 3 calls, Player 3 raises 600, Player 1 folds. (Note, Player 3 is a LAG, and there's a good chance of a bluff here). Is this callable by Hero? I assume that since Player 1 will be all in on the next hand with the blinds, that it's better to just fold this and see what happens. Third is likely, winning the pot won't make 2nd THAT much more likely, and winning odds look slim (absent a miracle). |
#2
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Re: Another Bubble Question
If the tournament structure pays out to the top 3 I fold this without hesitation.
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#3
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Re: Another Bubble Question
normally folding when you have pot odds on the bubble is wrong.
in this case i think it's definitely right. |
#4
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Re: Another Bubble Question
i think this is an easy as doubling up won't really help you much.
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#5
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Re: Another Bubble Question
Fold for me too, this is one of the times I might look at folding KK even. AA might be a fold, would have to think about that one. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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#6
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Re: Another Bubble Question
I think folding AA or KK here would be very wrong
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#7
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Re: Another Bubble Question
The ICM rates your EV as percentage of prize pool as 17.84% if you fold and 23.91% if you go allin and double up.
Therefore, to break even you need a winning percentage x such that .1784 = (.2391)(x). x = (.1784)/(.2391) = 74.61%. Therefore according to the ICM it is (surprise!) wrong to fold AA. KK is probably a fold given the likelihood of being up against Ax. 77 is not even close. |
#8
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Re: Another Bubble Question
Thanks!!
I think that answers the question. (Very naive question -- what is the ICM?) |
#9
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Re: Another Bubble Question
Independent Chip Model. It's a model that tries to estimate your share in the prize pool based on stack sizes of everyone at the table. Limitations include not factoring in blind size and assuming everyone has the same skill level.
Calculator is here. It isn't necessary to understand how it works. |
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