How much should an exposed card change your play?

[TripleH68]

Live 2-6 spread limit at Excalibur. I have AKo in MP. One of the cards dealt is exposed and becomes the burn card. It is a K. I raise preflop, get three callers, flop a K and go on to win the hand.

Several players gang up on me expressing disbelief that I would play the hand given the knowledge that a K was the burn card. I didn't care at the time. My buddy and I were drunk and blowing off steam in a late late night game, but a couple of these guys were overly serious about it.

What do you think? Any comments on this?

[gaming_mouse]

You have 5 outs instead of 6. All the reasons that AK is a good hand are still there. It is insane to even think of not seeing a flop here, and I'm pretty sure, tho not 100%, that raising PF is still correct.

Consider this:

Normally the probability of flopping at least 1 A or K is:

1 - (44 choose 3)/(50 choose 3)=.32

In the case of an exposed K, this becomes:

1 - (44 choose 3)/(49 choose 3)=.28

Not that big a difference.

gm

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
You have 5 outs instead of 6.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not even as bad as that because AKo has ways to win other than my making a pair, such as by winning unimproved, by making a one card flush, by making broadway, by having your ace play when there is a big two pair on board that counterfeits someone else's pair, etc. All of those possiblities aren't hurt (and are in fact slightly helped) by the dead king. Those are somewhat minor, but the situation is still even less bad than losing one of your only six outs.

[gaming_mouse]

Excellent points, bobby.

[captZEEbo1]

an interesting probability example is:

A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] vs T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] allin preflop:
about 46.1% to 53.9%

if you are missing the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for some reason (dead card), then....
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] vs T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] allin preflop (without K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]):
about 41.8% to 58.2%

A rule to the thumb if you are looking at pocket pairs vs 2 overs, for each card you are missing for the over, deduct about 4-5% for your probability of winning the hand. This is of course for NL hold'em allin preflop strategy. Exposed cards are a relatively big deal, but if nobody at the table is very keen on odds, it won't affect them too much.

[Ozzzz]

Your slight decrease in spiking a K are probably offset by the fact that if you DO spike a king, no one will believe that you have a K and you might make an extra bet or two.

[college kid]

[ QUOTE ]
Your slight decrease in spiking a K are probably offset by the fact that if you DO spike a king, no one will believe that you have a K and you might make an extra bet or two.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plus the fact that there could be a bet raise and reraise, and it would still go to the end ten handed. Play that slick without any 2nd thought.