#1
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What are the odds that I suck?
10,897 hands
-0.15 BB/100 SD = 16.3912 BB/100 What are the chances that my true win rate is >1 BB/100 given these stats? EDIT: If you wanna be really cool you can include the probabilities of other win rates too (1.5, 2, 2.5). Thanks. |
#2
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Re: What are the odds that I suck?
Your SE (standard error) is:
16.3912 / sqrt(10 897 / 100) = 1.57020832 This means a 95% CI for your true win rate is: -.15 +- 3.14 Using a normal dist calculator, the chance that your true win rate is: >1 BB/100 = .23 >1.5 = .14 >2 = .085 >2.5 = .045 Is this from 15/30? HTH, gm |
#3
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Re: What are the odds that I suck?
[ QUOTE ]
Is this from 15/30? [/ QUOTE ] No, 10/20 6 max. Thanks for the answer. |
#4
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Re: What are the odds that I suck?
I know my average hourly Standard Deviation (SD) and how to calculate SE. How do I use that information to determine the probability that I am, say a 1 Big Bet per hour winner, ½ BB per hour winner, 2BB per hour winner, etc? gaming_mouse answered the probability that Evan was a winner, (see previous posts in this thread), and I want to know how to do it for myself. How do I calculate it?
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#5
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Re: What are the odds that I suck?
[ QUOTE ]
I know my average hourly Standard Deviation (SD) and how to calculate SE. How do I use that information to determine the probability that I am, say a 1 Big Bet per hour winner, ½ BB per hour winner, 2BB per hour winner, etc? gaming_mouse answered the probability that Evan was a winner, (see previous posts in this thread), and I want to know how to do it for myself. How do I calculate it? [/ QUOTE ] normal dist. calculator The question only makes sense when you are losing, or win you are winning less than what you think your "true" win rate is. Enter the win rate you think you have for mu. Enter your SE for sigma. The area to the left of your observed win rate is the chance that you could lose as much as you have by chance alone. You can use -100 as an approximation to -infinity. HTH, gm |
#6
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Re: What are the odds that I suck?
I went to the link you gave me and it says that the calculator will pop up under a separate window. At the bottom it says Class normal Normal applet not found and no calculator comes up.
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#7
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Re: What are the odds that I suck?
without doing any of the math, i would say theres a good chance you're really bad at this game.
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#8
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Re: What are the odds that I suck?
[ QUOTE ]
I went to the link you gave me and it says that the calculator will pop up under a separate window. At the bottom it says Class normal Normal applet not found and no calculator comes up. [/ QUOTE ] works for me... i'm on windows xp. anyway, just google for "normal distribution calculator" and you will find other ones that will work for you. |
#9
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Re: What are the odds that I suck?
Chris, how about sharing your 2005 stats and we'll decide what your true win rate is? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#10
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Re: What are the odds that I suck?
[ QUOTE ]
without doing any of the math, i would say theres a good chance you're really bad at this game. [/ QUOTE ] Lol. I win; so I would say there is a good chance your assessment of how I fare is extremely bad. |
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