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Old 01-26-2005, 03:54 PM
jimymat jimymat is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 90
Default A losing streak

Dropped over $1500 on what I would consider to be bad beats. Not whining but have a question considering strategy adjustment. When I am in a situation with a made hand and I know that a fish is drawing to a hand that if made, will beat me, I will always bet the appropriate amount to control the pot odds. This is an obvious must do so if they call, there making a mistake. ( You profit when your opponent makes a mistake ) If you know they will call any thing though, would it be better to not make as large as a bet until the end so your variance is lowered. Example..
I held 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] vs J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Board 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
I bet, raise, reraise, call.
Turn J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
We get most of our money in here and he's drawing to a 4 outer and a 8.5% chance on the river. Ive got him trapped with his trips and I know he cant lay them down. Pot around $600 with another $100 in front of us roughly.
River 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
He just hits his 4 outer and Jacks full of 5's to beat my 10's full of Jacks. Since I knew he was calling on the turn no matter what with his trips should I have slowed down and waited to see what popped on the river before committing so much. If a blank falls I got it and then jam the pot. If a 4 outer hits I fold to the obvious higher boat and save my $100.I ended up folding the hand and he shows how he called a 4x BB raise with J 7 in mp.

This has been happening on a repeated cycle every session for me know and its taken a quarter of my bankroll.Other example..
QQ vs 97
6 Q 10 2 8

I understand the concept of variance but this is getting a little out of hand. Guys hitting 2 and 3 outers when Im jamming the pot and they go beyond pot odds to chase. I feel like Im playing right by jamming on the turn and taking my 95% to 93% chance of winning. Im just wondering if I could protect myself by waiting till the river on these hands so I can dump if I get rivered.
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  #2  
Old 01-27-2005, 12:32 AM
IsaacW IsaacW is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Finding patterns in the static.
Posts: 603
Default Re: A losing streak

He had 7 outs, not 4 (three fives, three sevens, and one jack).

That said, what you are suggesting with simultaneously reduce both variance and EV. If you are comfortable giving up long term profit for a decrease in variance, then go ahead, but you will make less money in the long run.

I think the bottom line is that you have a choice to make about how much risk you are willing to take on and how much risk your bankroll can handle. The second part of this is easy to control, just make sure you play within your limits. The first part is something that you have to figure out for yourself.

If you want to hurt the fish in cash games, however, you'll have to get out of the kiddie pool and start making some moves [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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