Good Opportunity for FPS?

spydog · #1 01-26-2005, 12:27 PM

OK. I've been looking for opportunities where going for a CR can be more profitable than just betting out. They are few and far between, but I came across this one.

MP2 is 44/20 after 35 hands.
CO is 34/5 after 30 hands.

Here is my thinking:
1) I didn't raise PF so my flop bet looks like I'm bluffing the Ace when I bet the flop and check the turn.
2) 2 people called the flop, which means the likelihood of one of them holding an Ace goes up.
3) They are likely to bet an ace on the turn if they have it. They will almost always call my CR and the river.
4) They may bluff at the turn when they otherwise might have folded.
5) They may check the turn when they might otherwise have folded, but be more likely to call my river bet.
6) They may have semibluff a flush draw that they picked up on the turn.

The downside is giving them a free card if they picked up a flush draw or have a gutbuster. Also, MP2 might be waiting to raise an Ace on the turn and I lose the opportunity to 3-bet.

Thoughts?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button folds, SB folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (3.33 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks....

chief444 · #2 01-26-2005, 12:33 PM

I think you'll more often than not see one of them bet the turn but I'm not sure it's more profitable than just betting out yourself and there is the risk of it checking through.

MarkD · #3 01-26-2005, 12:38 PM

Change the 9 to a 6 (or even a 7) and I like check raising here. As it stands I think betting out is the better play.

This is a good spot to go for a C/R on the turn for the reasons you sited but this board is slightly too co-ordinated for me.

Harv72b · #4 01-26-2005, 12:43 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
5 folds, CO raises, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks...

On your hand...I dunno, it could work out for you, but I also think there's a decent chance that someone will raise with an A if you bet out. That, combined with the possibility that it gets checked through & someone hits a straight on the river (or aces up), make me want to bet it again.

MarkD · #5 01-26-2005, 12:45 PM

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I also think there's a decent chance that someone will raise with an A if you bet out.

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I don't, they would have raised the flop if they were going to raise.

Harv72b · #6 01-26-2005, 12:48 PM

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I don't, they would have raised the flop if they were going to raise.

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I've seen a lot of people "slowplay" top pair in this situation, even if it's not smart to do so. I don't think there's a good chance it'll happen, but I do think it happens enough to be worth considering.

spydog · #7 01-26-2005, 12:49 PM

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there is the risk of it checking through.

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Yeah, but isn't this a slowplay situation also, where the hands that they check through would have folded to my turn bet and now I give them a chance/reason to call my river bet.

The chance that they have a J or 4 in their hand is lessened by my holding, therefore I may only be value betting against Ace holdings, which I think bet in this spot.

MarkD · #8 01-26-2005, 12:51 PM

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Yeah, but isn't this a slowplay situation also, where the hands that they check through would have folded to my turn bet and now I give them a chance/reason to call my river bet.

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This is way way way wrong. Look at the board. Look at the board - it is very co-ordinated with a lot of draws. Don't let them draw for free.

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The chance that they have a J or 4 in their hand is lessened by my holding, therefore I may only be value betting against Ace holdings, which I think bet in this spot.

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Wrong again. Lots of hands can call you on the turn here. A lot of hands WILL call you on the turn hand. Many (most?) of these hands will not call you on the river. Bet now while they will call you and get the money into the pot.

chief444 · #9 01-26-2005, 12:55 PM

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Yeah, but isn't this a slowplay situation also, where the hands that they check through would have folded to my turn bet and now I give them a chance/reason to call my river bet.

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What about hands that call your turn bet but fold the river unimproved? This is a somewhat draw-heavy board.

spydog · #10 01-26-2005, 01:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, but isn't this a slowplay situation also, where the hands that they check through would have folded to my turn bet and now I give them a chance/reason to call my river bet.

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This is way way way wrong. Look at the board. Look at the board - it is very co-ordinated with a lot of draws. Don't let them draw for free.

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The chance that they have a J or 4 in their hand is lessened by my holding, therefore I may only be value betting against Ace holdings, which I think bet in this spot.

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Wrong again. Lots of hands can call you on the turn here. A lot of hands WILL call you on the turn hand. Many (most?) of these hands will not call you on the river. Bet now while they will call you and get the money into the pot.

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I agree with what you say in the context of a big pot. However, this pot is tiny and I'm more worried about building it than I am about protecting it.