A6s UTG - Tough Bubble Decision

[El Maximo]

This was a tough decision for me. I was stumped on this one.
Big stack will call. He has been playing very loose. If Big stack calls my push, BB will fold. BB has been hanging around just waiting for me to bust out. What my best play?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

BB (t445)
Hero (t1010)
Button (t2765)
SB (t3780)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero ??

[rachelwxm]

Fold.

[hansarnic]

[ QUOTE ]

Big stack will call. He has been playing very loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO you have no way of knowing what big stack will do. He's open-raised a lot but hasn't called any raises.

The previous HHs are here:

Full HHs

[gvibes]

I push and don't think twice about it.

[spentrent]

Push. A6 beats three random hands. Don't play for third in a SNG. I guess that's a matter of opinion. I recently changed my mind for this situation -- I get sick to my stomach folding that hand now. Yeah, it hurts to see the smaller stack sneak in behind you, but it won't happen enough to make you cry.

[ColdestCall]

Based on the information you gave, I'd say you have to fold. If Big Stack will definitely call a push from you, seems like he's also likely to set short stack all-in here. If not, SB very well may. The only bad scenario if you fold is everyone folding around to BB, and even that isnt the end of the world. If that doesnt happen, BB will be all-in either this hand or next.

I understand those who say you should play for first in SNG's, but I think people sometimes get carried away with that concept. This particular example, where there is a very short stack all-in within two hands, and your stack is well below the other two players, seems to me to exemplify the situation where you should try and lock up some money first, and then try to get some more.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Big stack will call. He has been playing very loose. If Big stack calls my push, BB will fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Typical $EV math problem. I'll let somebody else do it, although my gut says fold. But if you play, you should minraise, instead.

[ericlambi]

Here's my esitmate. If A6s wins 60% of the time against a random hand, big stack will call no matter what, and BB will fold no matter what:

Push: .6( .1 * 0 + .3 * 40 + .3 * 60 + .3 * 100 ) + .4 * 0 = $36

Fold: .3 * 0 + .4 * 40 + .2 * 60 + .1 * 100 = $38

Unless my estimates are significantly wrong or I screwed this math up in my head, it's close enough either way that it doesn't matter. Since winning is more fun than getting 2nd or 3rd, I'd push.

[sofere]

Minraise with 3.5 BB??? That doesn't sound like typical advice from you Adanthar. Could you explain your thought process here?

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Minraise with 3.5 BB??? That doesn't sound like typical advice from you Adanthar. Could you explain your thought process here?

[/ QUOTE ]

If SB is calling anyway, you get to see whether the BB calls or folds. If he calls, you check it down or go all in if an ace hits and so on. If he folds, he's all in next hand and if the flop is K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] you can now check/fold to the SB bet.

If the SB goes all in, the decision hasn't changed anything, and there's always the chance the button has kings and the SB aces or vice versa or something.

Since you have zero FE, you may as well get the benefit of making an extra decision with more information later. Being pot committed is irrelevant since on a really terrible flop you can always choose to play for third.