Boston College @ Providence tomorrow - opinions?

null · #1 01-25-2005, 10:17 PM

Boston College plays at Providence tomorrow, and the line is Providence - 1, so it fits into the ranked opponent vs unranked favorite at home trend. But given how Providence has been playing lately, and the fact that BC already beat them at home and is undefeated, I can't bring myself to bet on Providence. In fact Boston College + 1 is looking pretty good right now. Then again the line is now at BC +1 +102 Providence -1 -112 at Pinnacle. What do you guys think about this game?

(BTW thanks NoChance for posting about that trend)

tech · #2 01-25-2005, 11:13 PM

I don't know if I will bet Providence, but there is no way that I am betting BC. The line value is with Providence here.

kenberman · #3 01-26-2005, 12:38 AM

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I don't know if I will bet Providence, but there is no way that I am betting BC. The line value is with Providence here.

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line value w/ PC? BC is undefeated. I don't see how PC +1 can be value.

tech · #4 01-26-2005, 01:27 AM

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line value w/ PC? BC is undefeated. I don't see how PC +1 can be value.

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I said there was line value with Providence. What I meant was that the line is formulated primarily from power ratings assuming a standard home court advantage. In situations like this (at home vs. ranked team), the home court advantage is typically larger than normal. Thus there is probably value with Providence. The question becomes whether or not it is enough to make a bet worthwhile.

WackityWhiz · #5 01-26-2005, 01:35 PM

you can think the value is with providence all you want. When it is all said and done, the value will be in my bank account with a BC victory.

Aces McGee · #6 01-26-2005, 01:57 PM

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Then again the line is now at BC +1 +102 Providence -1 -112 at Pinnacle.

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I think you should bet both and go for the middle. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I don't bet sports, and I'd really hate to have to lay money on either team here. BC is undefeated, but they are really the surprise team of the year; they aren't like an Illinois where you could predict success preseason. Similarly, but on the other end of the spectrum, Providence has been playing inexplicably poorly this year. They've played well below expectations.

The thinking has to be that BC is going to come back down to earth eventually, and Providence will step up their play eventually. But it seems to me that laying money on either tonight would basically be playing a guessing game as to when those two things will happen.

-McGee

tech · #7 01-26-2005, 02:17 PM

I don't know who will win this particular game. I *do* know that you cannot win over the long run if you continually take the worst of it.

WackityWhiz · #8 01-26-2005, 02:41 PM

I say BC wins this game 7 times out of 10, so I made my bet accordingly. It's definately not a lock at all, but I think my money is on the correct side tonight. Good luck with your plays.

null · #9 01-26-2005, 07:52 PM

Well, I put a small ($10) bet on BC +1 -101. Should be a good game to watch.

WackityWhiz · #10 01-26-2005, 08:26 PM

Yeah, I'm noticing the line moving as tip-off approaches... i actually increased my wager to 165/150... I'm thinking ima need a miracle to take this one home. I was officially sucked into a bet. Everyone who didn't bet on providence, say a prayer for BC, I think they are gonna need it. GO BC, PLEASE WIN