AA hand, botched turn and river play?

Chris Daddy Cool · #1 01-25-2005, 09:49 PM

Villian in this hand is unknown to me. I suspect that many of you will say my river line contradicts my turn call.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB raises, MP1 folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (7 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (13 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15 BB

BWebb · #2 01-25-2005, 09:55 PM

Since it's an unknown I think it's fine. You have to look him up after he 3-bets the turn, so why charge yourself 3 BBs when you are behind? Call and information is gathered.

private joker · #3 01-25-2005, 09:58 PM

This is probably expert play, but I don't really get it. You must have a pretty good calculation of the chances he has a flush/straight (to which you lose) against the chances he has 2 pair or a lower set (which you beat). Those odds probably were enough to call with but not enough to raise with. But still, I am confused by this line. Do you see why?

Nate tha' Great · #4 01-25-2005, 10:02 PM

I tried to come up with a quick estimate of his likely hands and came up with your being ahead something like 60% of the time, which is not quite enough to raise with since I think you need to call a 3-bet.

chief444 · #5 01-25-2005, 10:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villian in this hand is unknown to me. I suspect that many of you will say my river line contradicts my turn call.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it's contradictory at all. I think the river greatly improves your chances of winning but still not enough to raise.

bisonbison · #6 01-25-2005, 10:06 PM

nice hand.

wuwei · #7 01-25-2005, 10:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villian in this hand is unknown to me. I suspect that many of you will say my river line contradicts my turn call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, makes sense to me... but I play too cautious, I'm sure. Seems like an odd line from you though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Turn comes no spade, and you raise here to force out the SB. You also raise to see if the BB still likes his hand after a non spade turn. Yep, he does.

River improves us, but it doesn't matter if the BB holds what he's representing. So we call. He was an unknown, he's about to become known.

chief444 · #8 01-25-2005, 10:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You must have a pretty good calculation of the chances he has a flush/straight (to which you lose) against the chances he has 2 pair or a lower set (which you beat). Those odds probably were enough to call with but not enough to raise with. But still, I am confused by this line. Do you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]
It seems to me like you just answered your own question. If he was behind a flush or straight he still is. So even though the river gives him a good chance of having the best hand (much better than on the turn), it still isn't good enough to raise with. Maybe if you could fold to a 3-bet but I couldn't.

Chris Daddy Cool · #9 01-25-2005, 11:21 PM

Bad guy showed A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and my hand was not good.

i was foldign the river unimproved btw.

Nate tha' Great · #10 01-25-2005, 11:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Bad guy showed A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and my hand was not good.

i was foldign the river unimproved btw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure that's mathematically incorrect.

Against QJ you have two outs to a set and six outs to a better two pair, for eight total, although three of those outs will put a four-flush on the board, so I think we're talking about 6.5 effective outs.

Against a set you have two outs.

So if you put his hands at
Flush 40%
Two-Pair 35%
Set 25%

We're talking about just 2.75 weighed average outs, which is not enough to call, especially as you can't raise on the end.

There needs to be a significant chance of his having something like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Qx or K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Qx or A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Jx in order for you to justify a call.

And if there's a significant enough chance of those hands, which I think that there is against an unknown opponent in this game, you need to call on the end as well, unless a bad card comes off.