AK Against Tightish Player

[spydog]

Villian is 18/4 with AF of 2.5 after 200+ hands.

I assume the flop 3-bet is standard with the board looking very drawy?

Should I bet this turn? I think he 3-bets KK, but not sure about JJ. I don't think he coldcalls 22. So, he's either:

1) Getting cute with AA.
2) He's hammering me with JJ
3) He coldcalled with AQs, ATs, or KJ(suited, but not clubbed) and is pounding his draw or 2 pair.

River: Value bet after the turn check or should I just induce a bluff if he's got the busted draw? I doubt he would try to bluff me after the preflop/flop action, so value bet seems the best choice.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.16 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (7.16 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ......

[Nick C]

I think your flop 3-bet is fine, and I probably would have been bullied into checking the turn also (especially since the turn card adds a new worry).

I think something like K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] starts looking likely when Button decides he wants a free card on the turn. (Or maybe he's just scared of AQ?) Does that mean you should bet the river? I don't know. Button might bet a hand like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] that he probably wouldn't call with, and he might both bet and call with a hand like K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I doubt he'll check behind again with KJ, but he's not going to fold it, either.

I think I'd check-call the river, partly because I don't want to pay two bets to get to showdown, and I don't think I would fold to a raise.

By the way, given his fairly passive preflop stats, I think AK is another possibility for Button.

[Freakin]

Looks like an easy value bet to me.

Freakin

[ScottTheFish]

I would bet...looks like a flush draw to me. I guess an argument could be made that no worse hand will call here, but I'm not so sure.

Of course if I get raised here it sucks, and I will have to call it. I would probably bet and call a raise, but as I write it I'm not loving that plan. I'll be curious to see what others say.

[chief444]

I'd say a flush draw including the K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (KQs probably) or A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] are possibilities, maybe QT clubs or even 9T clubs but less likely. I don't think any hands you lose to checks the turn and I also don't think the river could have helped him.

I bet and call a raise.

[Mister Z]

I'd put him on KQ[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Even being passive I would think he would have 3-bet preflop with AQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but that could be wrong. He missed his draw and you'll either be splitting the pot or winning with top pair. Value bet the river.

[MoreWineII]

With villian being tightish, I don't think he'll bluff if you check. And you're probably not looking at a raise since the river card changed nothing.

Therefore, value bet.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
With villian being tightish, I don't think he'll bluff if you check. And you're probably not looking at a raise since the river card changed nothing.

Therefore, value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you guys have gotten me thinking betting the river is best. A couple of points, though: (1) a 2.5 postflop aggression factor isn't passive, and (2) I really have my doubts about Villain calling with something like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], especially given his tightness. I think it could be more likely he'd bet those hands himself as a desperation bluff than call with them.

However, K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is more likely than the other missed draws I mentioned, and I do think Villain would probably be more inclined to call with that hand than bet it himself.

[PhatPots]

I would bet that. I don't know why he would want to take a free card after he capped the flpp unless he was draw for a flush. Maybe he has Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I think I would have to bet this river. That 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a blank and didn't change anything. The only hand that would worry me is that he has KJ, but I think I would have to bet.

Cheers,
Pots

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
With villian being tightish, I don't think he'll bluff if you check. And you're probably not looking at a raise since the river card changed nothing.

Therefore, value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you do in the unlikely event that you are raised? Make a crying call?