90k Stack Late in Tournament, Big Decision

[XChamp]

Ok this in a party $30+3, 1350 people entered. There are exactly 30 people left, so I have twice the avg. stack. I haven't played many $30's so I don't know the typical player very well. I assume they mostly are too loose for their own good and do not know much tournament strategy.

Here is the hand: (sorry bisonbison's site is down)
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Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: Billy433 ( $20467 )
Seat 3: husgansen ( $89318 )
Seat 4: wjw4th ( $121436 )
Seat 5: coolerAA ( $75510 )
Seat 6: crazyivar ( $11360 )
Seat 7: OHammer ( $45405 )
Seat 8: XChamp2k ( $89225 )
Seat 10: MannoR ( $93950 )
Trny:8965978 Level:17
Blinds (3000/6000)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to XChamp2k [ Jh Js ]
wjw4th folds.
coolerAA raises [17100].
crazyivar folds.
OHammer folds.
--------------------


What do you do, and why?

coolerAA had joined the table 12 hands before and had not played a single one. Here he is raising in early position. If I reraise then I need to put it to at least 40k and that is almost half my stack, and he might pop it back and then I probably have to call. Also, there were two big stacks to play after me who could have woken up with QQ,KK or AA and I was pretty sure that if MannoR had AK he wasn't laying it down no matter what action happened before him. I wasn't sure about HusGansen. He might fold AK if I raised, but not QQ.

ALso, if I raise to 40k then I'm pretty sure coolerAA calls with anyhting he raised with, which means if Q,K,A comes I'm in an ever harder situation. If an 8,9,T comes I need to be worried about a set.


If I move in then obviously if anyone calls I'm either in a race (possibly for all my chips) or losing horribly. I had no idea if coolerAA would fold AK if I moved in.

If I call then suddenly MannoR and husgansen are going to consider calling also (especially MannoR). Obviously this is not good.

SO what do you do? Taking down that 25k in the pot is very tempting, doubling up even more so.

[Pepsquad]

Fold. Assuming that an opponent has made it to the final 30 of a 1,350 player field by being "too loose for his own good" is not good - not good at all. 1/3rd stack raise in early position at this stage smells like KK or AA.

[JaBlue]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. ... 1/3rd stack raise in early position at this stage smells like KK or AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Narrowing his hand selection down to this range is horrible. He could many more hands such as AK, AQ, 1010-77, or even a complete steal (which doesn't seem likely because of the description, but still should not be completely discounted).

Folding in this spot looks like a big mistake. Calling is bad because there are not too many flops that look great to JJ. You can't raise because you pot commit yourself. The decision seems pretty easy: push.

I am pretty sure that pushing is clearly best here.

[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold. ... 1/3rd stack raise in early position at this stage smells like KK or AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Narrowing his hand selection down to this range is horrible. He could many more hands such as AK, AQ, 1010-77, or even a complete steal (which doesn't seem likely because of the description, but still should not be completely discounted).

Folding in this spot looks like a big mistake. Calling is bad because there are not too many flops that look great to JJ. You can't raise because you pot commit yourself. The decision seems pretty easy: push.

I am pretty sure that pushing is clearly best here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I couldn't disagree more. He knows nothing of villain other than the fact that he hasn't played a hand in his first full rotation at the table and now wakes up from early position with a 3XBB raise. Your inclusion of
77-99 is horrible given what we know. BEST case scenario is 1010 or AQ. Combine that with 2 stacks yet to act that have me covered? No thanks - next hand please.

[zaxx19]

How do you put the guy on 77 here as often as AA AK AQ QQ 1010 KK ....Im glad I read these forums bc they help me loosen up my own game but sometimes it just looks like you guys NEED TO PUSH ANYTHING DECENT and justify it with some silly logic.

If JJ is a clear push here...well your gonna have to get extremely lucky to win MTT's IMHO... but when you do you'll have like 90% of the chips in play once the final table begins lol. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[DonButtons]

Options.

Fold (too weak tight for me)
Call (hmm-bail out on bad flop)
Reraise (make it look like you have KK or AA, and make it 35-45k to go)
Push preflop(coinflip, your dominated, or you have him dominated, duh)

These are some of those decisions in a tournament which sometimes are tricky. I prob. would reraise or push because Im very aggressive late in a tournament and push whenever I think I have a edge.

Of course sometimes you look down into AA, KK, QQ, but those are the only hands you are worried about. But when the blinds get big, people try stealing with hands like kq, aj, 99, etc...so I think its good to be aggressive with JJ...because with the big blinds, plus his bet preflop, give you nice odds to take a coin flip, or just to steal.

[Sluss]

Is it too weak to call this bet bailing out to a reraise behind and then pushing on any over card flop?

[XChamp]

I folded the hand after some long thought. husgansen called the raise and then fired out 30k on a flop of T62. coolerAA thought a while and then folded. Obviously coolerAA didn't have QQ+. I think he had AK; if he had 77,88,99 I think he would have called that flop bet. I know I would have.

[Goodie54]

Here are the problems with your line, sluss and Zaxx, you really gotta stop with the weak tight advice, it's no good for this forum.

Sluss, the problem with calling and pushing on a rag flop are these - it lets the big stacks behind in for a good price with KQ or a lot of other hands you don't want in.

What if the original better pushes on a rag flop, your faced with the same decision as pre-flop.

Letting the original bettor off the hook with a hand like AK AQ KQ is atrocious here. If he calls your re-raise with these hands than your getting the right price and have a good chance at the big money if you win this coin flip.

Folding should NOT be an option here. Weak tight play like this will never win anyone a poker tournament.

Peace

Goodie

[Goodie54]

The 2+2 dictionary's definition of the weak tight player --


Zaxx

Peace

Goodie