Was this a marginal call/bad play?

[eggzz]

This was actually a home tournament, forty dollar buy in, ten players. Two tables of 5, until whittled down to 6 for the final table. Payout 50%/30%/20%. Table full of loose crazies.

I get early respect by playing quad nines real well, also was playing well post flop with marginal hands. Anyway, I have A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and limp in UTG. I think the BB was only 20 at this point, and someone may have raised to 50. I called and 3 saw this flop:

10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Check, I bet the pot, around 150. Fold. BB goes all in for about 550 total. I have him covered, I had about 1300 before the hand started and we all started with T900.

So I figure him for the made flush, but not necessarily. I felt he was 75% for the flush, and 25% for top pair. If he had JJ and above, he would have raised more preflop (he was not the preflop raiser). The preflop raiser folded to my bet I think.

So back to the hand, I have the nutflush draw and middle pair. I was having a hard time counting my outs vs. pot odds to determine if it was correct (or at least close to correct for me to call).

I ran this through a simulator, and I gave my opponent a flush, and I came out to be a 30% dog. I figure I was getting 2 to 1 for my call. So does that mean its a coinflip/slightly poor play for me to call?

Help me out with what 30% underdog to win the hand translates to as far as what kind of pot odds I need to make this call. I was 7 to 3 against hitting my hand so isn't that like 2.2 to one making it an ok call?

Here is how the hand ended up:

<font color="white"> I hit runner runner A and 8 for a full boat, and went on to win the dang thing. This was the defining hand though. </font>

<font color="white"> Villain did have a King high flush on the flop. </font>

[cha59]

I think its a good call because you had the possibility of villan not holding a king high flush.
If he doesnt have the flush, you might have 3 aces and 2 8's as possible outs to go with your 9 spades - as many as 15 outs with 2 cards to come.
If he's holding a high pair like JJ, you're the favorite. If he shows you his flush before you make the decision, its probably a fold.

[cha59]

Correction to previous post, 14 not 15 outs