Value bet or induce bluff on river?

[spydog]

Have only seen villian play 1+ orbit. Nothing unusualy about his play. I'm considering him an unknown.

Turn: I planned on betting and folding to a raise.

River: He has 1 of three hands. Busted draw, weaker Ace, or a paired Ten. Does this make it an easy check-call or bet-fold?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (7 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds, Button calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ....

[Luv2DriveTT]

[ QUOTE ]
River: He has 1 of three hands. Busted draw, weaker Ace, or a paired Ten. Does this make it an easy check-call or bet-fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would check / call here. Too many players will call down with hands like A4o in the outside hopes that the pre-flop aggressor doesn't have an ace. You may not have the best hand, and if you do your call assures you that at least you won't have to call a river raise just to see the showdown. Induce the bet, its the best case in this unique scenario.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[prayformojo]

Villain could also have a lower pocket pair. I've seen an increase in people at 3/6 calling down pre-flop raisers with low pairs. It's less likely with the ace on board, but it shouldn't be ruled out.

I check/call this river. There aren't many hands you beat that would call, and you're not going to get an A or a J to fold. You're ahead much more often when you call his river bet than when he calls yours.