EdFish moves up to 3/6

edtost · #1 01-23-2005, 11:11 PM

too weak? villain seemed fairly loose/passive after ~2 orbits.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $3.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 (poster) checks, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 folds.

Flop: (9 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

River: (8.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.50 BB

sthief09 · #2 01-23-2005, 11:14 PM

if you had a more reliable read, you could fold the turn. otherwise, I like it because he could be semibluffing

sfer · #3 01-23-2005, 11:33 PM

Ni han.

Chris Daddy Cool · #4 01-23-2005, 11:34 PM

i don't think there's anything else you can do about this.

gaming_mouse · #5 01-24-2005, 12:08 AM

To convince yourself this is good, think about it this way.

If he is bluffing or semi-bluffing, you win the most, because he will likely fold if you raise the turn, or may even fold if you raise the river. In fact, raising the river and folding to a 3-bet is the only other good option I see here. However, since he is fairly unknown you probably want to see a showdown, so your line is best.

If he's not bluffing, you lose the least. Again, you could lose less if you were willing to fold the turn, but that seems like a bad option vs an unknown.

gm

bdk3clash · #6 01-24-2005, 12:58 AM

Standard, well played. I assume a few weeks ago you (incorrectly) raise this turn.

Derek in NYC · #7 01-24-2005, 10:56 AM

OK, I'm way out of line here with conventional wisdom. Why is raising the turn wrong? Just because somebody does a stop & go you're going to give him credit for trips? A few thoughts:

1. In my experience, somebody who makes trips on 4th street, but has the flop aggressor to the left, often goes for the checkraise. Leading on a scare card is more often than not a semi/total bluff. See SSH, p 167 n.64

2. If behind, you will be three-bet, in which case you can fold, losing the same amount as check-calling the big streets. (Bluff-reraises, given the prior action, are almost non-existent at 3/6, I think, except from the occasional maniac).

3. If you are ahead, you will often get called down by somebody holding an overpair to the board such as TT or JJ, as many at 3/6 are unwilling to fold their overpair to an even bigger overpair.

Bottom line: absent a read on this guy as a tight passive, I think raising is the right course.

PS--by the way, now that I go back and re-read the footnote from SSH, I think this is very consistent with somebody holding a semibluff card. This example and the SSH example are, if not identical, at least quite similar. As Evan mentioned, 88 is an extremely likely holding in addition to semi-large overpairs.

Evan · #8 01-24-2005, 10:59 AM

I think there's a case to be made for raising the river. FWIW I think he has a smaller pp a lot of the time, a lot of that time it will be 88 imo.

scrub · #9 01-24-2005, 11:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think there's a case to be made for raising the river. FWIW I think he has a smaller pp a lot of the time, a lot of that time it will be 88 imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree--raising and folding to a 3-bet here is a pretty hot.

scrub

scrub · #10 01-24-2005, 11:11 AM

Also, because I like to pound this into the ground, guys usually have the same thing every time they use this line.

I usually call down and take a note the first time an unknown rando bets the turn into me, but that's because I tend to give up small edges against unknowns in favor of seeing their cards and taking a note.

I'm pretty sure there's value in raising the river, though.

scrub