99 with two all in.

prayformojo · #1 01-22-2005, 04:15 PM

Stars $10 rebuy. 60 left in, 45 places pay. Not much of a read on either villain, but neither of them seems particularly loose, and neither has got noticeably out of line.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (8 handed) converter

UTG (t45634)
UTG+1 (t34315)
MP1 (t64877)
Hero (t25114)
CO (t24920)
Button (t32613)
SB (t22568)
BB (t52432)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t9000</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t32463</font>, SB calls t20918 (All-In), BB folds, Hero ???

My best case scenario is that both villains are holding high broadways, ideally both AK. However, I don't expect either villain to go all in with a pocket pair that I beat, so I am dead against almost anything but two Ax hands. If I call and win, I will have a very strong chip stack going into bubble time. If I fold, I'll have just over 5 BB left, and will be all in soon enough. Your action?

Baloosh · #2 01-22-2005, 04:38 PM

What's your goal in this tournament? To finish in first place, or to finish somewhere in the money?

If you're just looking to make it into the money, fold it.
If you're looking to take first place, push and hope to win this and approx. triple up.

woodguy · #3 01-22-2005, 04:44 PM

Since you are getting 75796-16114 or ~4.5-1 its an easy call given your pot equity is at 30% or better.

You started the hand with only 8.5BB's you should be in all-in or fold mode, not raising 3XBB because you are pot commited once you make that inital bet.

Regards,
Woodguy

Sam T. · #4 01-22-2005, 04:46 PM

I think that given the stack sizes involved, this might be worth a call. You're not in great shape, and your opponents also need to double up.

I had the same situation last night, except:

1. I had 88 (not much different).
2. I was the big stack.
3. My opponents were not under 10xBB, and thus would be playing better hands.

I raised PF in MP, LP pushed, and the SB followed suit. A loss would not have crippled me, and a win would have been great, but it seemed to me that the chances were good that one or both of them were on an overpair - I'd shown strength (though I had been bullying somewhat), the second guy said he didn't care, and the third said neither did he. Think, think think, muck.

DyessMan89 · #5 01-22-2005, 05:02 PM

As someone else said, it depends on your goals. If you want to just make the money, then fold. You have 2 stacks covered at you're table, and assuming that would be the case at most tables, I think its possible to slip into the money by playing extremley selective and smart.

However, you are getting desperate, being only 8.5X BB, and you have a good shot at tripling up. I would assume you have around a 30-35% chance of tripling up.

I would play this hand based on the payout system. If the 40-45 place finishes are getting decent money ... then I would fold. However, if they are extremley miniscule compared to the higher places, then I would call this.

Anyone agree or disagree with me?

prayformojo · #6 01-22-2005, 05:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Since you are getting 75796-16114 or ~4.5-1 its an easy call given your pot equity is at 30% or better.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you determine that my pot equity is 30% or better?

prayformojo · #7 01-22-2005, 05:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What's your goal in this tournament? To finish in first place, or to finish somewhere in the money?

[/ QUOTE ]

My goal in the logical parts of my brain was first place. The lowest money spots were a pittance and the top 5 paid pretty well. But I've had a lot of bad luck (or perhaps I just suck -- a very real possibility) lately in NL tournament play, and I think the lesser allure of just making the money may have been stronger than I'd like to admit.

I did fold, Button showed AK, and SB showed AQ. With no A, K, or Q on board my hand would have been very good indeed. I wanted to be sure I wasn't just being results oriented when I hit myself repeatedly about the head for folding this.

Mike Gallo · #8 01-22-2005, 05:33 PM

I fold.

davidross · #9 01-22-2005, 05:40 PM

You need to know the answer to this question before you put over 1/3 of your chips in the pot. Most players (myself included) are pushing all-in or folding pre-flop here. I would push all-in and let your opponents know that you're not going anywhere. Betting 9K you are either giving yourself a chance to get away if raised, or enticing calls (something you'd do with AA obviously).

Given the action so far I would fold.