Question about risk/reward

soko · #1 01-22-2005, 04:10 PM

Few nights ago at a home game, an experienced player with dominating chip lead, something like 5000 he is bullying everybody and bluffing almost every hand that is checked to him and it's working because everybody is playing super-tight to make it in the money. With 3 other players with chip stacks less than 1000, top 3 payout. I was pretty short, around 700 chips, big blind was 80 I think, anyways, he limps in UTG, I look at JJ and raise to 300, everybody folds to him who calls, flop comes AK3, he bets 200, the same amount he bets almost every flop so you cant tell if he is bluffing or not, at this point should I just push and hope he is bluffing or just deal with my pathetic stack and hope for some good cards??

Phil Van Sexton · #2 01-22-2005, 04:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was pretty short, around 700 chips, big blind was 80 I think, anyways, he limps in UTG, I look at JJ and raise to 300

[/ QUOTE ]

You violated 2 rules:
- You should be in "allin or fold" mode when your stack is less than 10 BBs. Disclaimer: I violate this myself sometimes, but NEVER with JJ.

- Never bet more than 40% of your stack without going allin.

That flop is terrible and you have a tough decision, but you never should've been in that spot to begin with.

To answer your original question, I'd probably push and lose.

FlFishOn · #3 01-22-2005, 05:10 PM

With JJ I like to keep my total mistakes on any one hand to one or less. I push preflop.

Gramps · #4 01-22-2005, 06:11 PM

Like the others say, push preflop. 50% or so of the time at least one overcard will come on the flop, the big stack will bet roughly 100% of the time it does (as well as 100% of the time one doesn't), and you'll have no idea where you're at. No shame in picking up 200 (or so) chips for free if he folds, and you're still likely to be a juicy favorite the times he does call.

Also, what the payout structure is and what the other stacks have affects your flop decision in the scenario described. Now that you've committed 300 and are down to 400, I'd want that information to decide whether or not to commit the last of my chips on the flop.