50+5 bubble question

[ChrisCo]

No solid reads on players but SB was not afraid to be aggressive while the button had not gotten out of line all tourney.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

SB (t1795)
Hero (t2115)
UTG (t3330)
Button (t2760)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t600</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t900</font>, Hero .....?

[Myst]

I would fold this hand, b/c the minireraise with the blinds this high usually screams strength.

Unless of course, this is the type of move SB would do with an AQ/AJ hand, then you push.

[Michael C.]

I don't understand why you would fold here for several reasons. 1) You're getting over 5-1 actual odds, and even more implied odds. That's enough for me to call and see if an ace hits (or some miracle straight or something). If you're worried about him having AA, then you should fold KK here too. Except that you have one of the aces. 2) This is the second post where someone has pointed out how dangerous a mini-raise is. I agree, but if you're going to lay down everytime someone makes that kind of move, won't you get run over? Next time around, why would he call you when he can just bump it slightly and get you to fold. You can't only wait to raise with KK or AA, and there's no other better hand you'll have to start with than AK. So I'd call and see the flop and then evaluate. The raiser could easily have JJ, QQ or one of many hands, and AA is really the only hand that really scares you now.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand why you would fold here for several reasons. 1) You're getting over 5-1 actual odds, and even more implied odds. That's enough for me to call and see if an ace hits (or some miracle straight or something). If you're worried about him having AA, then you should fold KK here too. Except that you have one of the aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points.

[ QUOTE ]
but if you're going to lay down everytime someone makes that kind of move, won't you get run over?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[ QUOTE ]
Next time around, why would he call you when he can just bump it slightly and get you to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he's not likely to survive until next time, and if he does and he tries to min-raise your BB he'll see your stack... which is not what I'd call getting run over.

[ QUOTE ]
You can't only wait to raise with KK or AA, and there's no other better hand you'll have to start with than AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have to wait for AA or KK to raise, but you may want to wait for those to get invovled on the bubble against two min-raisers in front of you. And are you sure there are no other hands that are ahead of AK preflop?

[ QUOTE ]
So I'd call and see the flop and then evaluate.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's completely out of the question for reasons that will be quite clear if you reread the original post.

I fold this hand every single time without any reservations.

Irieguy

[Scuba Chuck]

There's three points to consider:

1) Preflop, did you raise only 600 chips here so that you could fold to strength? Or are you ready to go to battle?

2) What hands do you use to call an allin? Generally my list is AA, KK, QQ, JJ and AK. What about you?

3) If you fold, you do still have fold equity. If you're a good player, and you're getting to the bubble frequently, I think this is a push. I would definately fold AQ here.

In the end you have a strong hand. You are a coinflip against any small/mid pair. I would think that if you used ICM here, you'd find this question to be close. In the end, this may have been a better push PF.

[Scuba Chuck]

One more thing. I'm sure the pros on this site say it's a fold, FWIW.

[ChrisCo]

Scuba Chuck you are reading the hand history wrong. I wasn't the original raiser it was the button that min raised. Then the sb reminraised and the action was then to me with AK. I am starting to agree with a fold here but the hard part about folding is because of the looseness and the aggressiveness of my opponent. There were several times where he would minraise on the button and he would get played back at and not have the goods to call. Does this change anyones action at all?

[Scuba Chuck]

Ah, thanks for the correction. It does change my answer.

My guess the reason you're asking is because you did fold, and the flop/results were favorable to you calling. Am I right?

[Mr_J]

Which one usually min-raised?

If button usually minraised, then SB shows strength and I couldn't run away fast enough. If SB is the one who usually minraises, then button could be trying to steal, and SB probally has a good hand (since even a moron couldn't expect to steal here re-minraising).

I've seen alot of people min-raise to steal (esp with higher blinds), but he could easily be looking for some calls.

[se2schul]

Some people have mentionned calling to see if the flop suits your hand. If you call, you are subject to a reraise behind you from the Button (who has been solid). This is something to consider. If you call and he pushes, do you call or fold?

If you push, you likely won't be called by a hand you dominate, I'm gussing a PP from JJ-AA. I'm guessing that you can't make them fold at this point as SB has just committed half his stack.

If you fold, you maintain an average stack of ~6BB. You can still steal with good position, and you have a good chance to make ITM.

This may be too weak, but I don't want to call a reraise on the bubble without something better.

Does ICM shed any light on this problem? I don't know how to use ICM well yet...

ss