Some thoughts on Hoops betting - too long!

[anatta]

For the past year, I am trying to make it as a poker pro, I have no kids or expenses and my condo is paid for and so its going okay, not great. I bet sports for fun, maybe $110 on a game if I like it. I played basketball, and I have always loved the NBA.

So basically I don't really know [censored] regarding hoops action. That said, IMO, I think "fan money" and anticipating "pubic (mis)perception" is a big factor in picking NBA sides.

Last Summer during the NBA Championships, like most posters here, I was all over the Pistons. I got them after game two to win it all when they were huge dogs. I took them second half of game two after Malone was hurt, and took them every game after.

I think that one of the reasons that the Pistons were huge dogs, even after they outplayed the Lakers twice and Malone was done, is that the action on the Lakers was not based on logic. It was based on past performance, "mystique". Fisher hit that shot with .02 vs Spurs, Kobe nailed that 3 pointer to win game 2, all those rings, Phil Jackson, etc... But anyone watching the games could see what we all saw here, the emperor had no clothes!

Looking at fan money or where the pubics money is going is of course only one factor. However, because there are a relatively small amount of teams, I think its difficult in the NBA to outsmart the books. If you are really quick and sharp and line shop early and do all that, then yes, I think value can be had. But I don't think I can or want to do that. This differs from college hoops where there are hundreds of teams you can bet on. It is really possible, I imagine, to research a small conference, like the Patriot, and know more about James Madison v. Richmond then the books. But what kinda fun is that?

So I stick with the NBA. This year I have been looking for situations where the line is biased based on the flow of event. I think your average better goes on level 1 thinking, they bet the "buzz" or whatever. The books will adjust the line in accordance with the action that they get, and I suppose they will set the line in anticipation of this buzz.

By way of example, Denver at Golden State (Monday night). Denver was -3, I think, on the road. I thought fans still think Denver as a talented playoff team. But have you watched them lately? I took the horrible Warriors at home. Same with Minn as road fav at Lakers tonight. Took the Lakers.

Look at Chicago at Boston (-5), by now everybody knows about Bulls. I thought the line was about right, didn't bet it. Turns out game was close but Celts pulled away and covered, thus what I think would be the fans pick lost again. Detroit at Orlando yesterday, Detroit blows out a team at home and folks think they are back, ignoring that the are now on the road against a rival. Utah at Lakers, Utah's style gives Lakers troubles, they blew out Lakers with Russian and Kobe playing, without both, its a wash, Utah big dog wins the game, I thought fans think Lakers, just won without Kobe AT Warriors, will now dispatch stuggling Jazz at home no problem and the line was too much in Lakers favor.

I sense that maybe I am just stating the obvious here, maybe I am not making any sense at all! [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[sublime]

hey anatta-

if you are serios about improving your NBA handicapping knowledge, there is a gentleman whos posts on sharp sports betting free NBA forum by the name of pyhtgoras (sp?) who has won at about a 55% rate over 600 picks or so. he answers a lot of questions/thoughts like the ones you asked above.

[buzzbait]

I was under the impression that during the NBA regular season, the average betting public didn't effect the lines much as most of the action comes from the pros. But then in the playoffs when the action from the general public increases, the public perception of the teams can have an effect on the line. Is this thinking incorrect and do regular season lines really see much effect from the general publics perception?
I thought the only league where the general public could really effect the lines during the regular season was the NFL due to the small number of games and therfore the heavy action they always get. Hopefully someone with more experience will be able to clarify this.

[sublime]

I was under the impression that during the NBA regular season, the average betting public didn't effect the lines much as most of the action comes from the pros.

less squares bet on hoops, but still more than enough to compensate for the "sharp" action.

[scott8]

Hey Sublime, the link didn't work.
Thanks in advance.

[Gallopin Gael]

This should do it

[anatta]

I just read pythagorus' (sp me too!) posts and yeah he seems to be on a roll and his analysis is impressive. I think he'll be getting paid soon so its nice its free now.