Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 01-16-2005, 05:54 PM
soko soko is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 384
Default Opponents improving

lets say on any given flop you have top pair, lets say you have 1, 2 or 3 opponents and they will call to the river if they have any pair, what are the chances thay any one of them will spike 2 pair by the river, how about 2 pair or a set?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 01-17-2005, 03:00 AM
na4bart na4bart is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Beach, SoCal
Posts: 98
Default Re: Opponents improving

It depends on whether you are running bad or not. If you are then it is 100% certain the fish draw out. Like today's 20/40 at the Bike. -$1700. The fish got there every time. Oh well.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 01-17-2005, 04:54 AM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: South of Heaven
Posts: 746
Default Re: Opponents improving

I have a simple system I use for calculating odds. The more outs you have the less acurate it gets.

X*Y*2=%chance you'll hit

X is your number of outs, y is the number of cards yet to come.

Thus, if an opponent has pair the flop, but you have an overpair, he has 5 outs and 2 more cards to come. He has a 20% chance of catching. This system undervalues few outs and overvalues many outs, but it gives you a rough estimate.

CSC
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 01-18-2005, 06:41 AM
soko soko is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 384
Default Re: Opponents improving

I am aware of single odds where one player is drawing, the chances the next card will hit. but how do you calculate if 2 or more are drawing that either one or both of them will improve?
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 01-18-2005, 04:27 PM
Stork Stork is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Just a little bit to your left...
Posts: 65
Default Re: Opponents improving

It depends on how many of them are sharing outs.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 01-18-2005, 08:39 PM
Pokerscott Pokerscott is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 173
Default Re: Opponents improving

it also depends on how many of them hold outs for the others.

KK vs AQ is very different from KK vs AQ AQ AQ AQ [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

PS
Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:33 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.