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#1
01-14-2005, 02:40 AM
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How easy is it to win at sports betting?
A friend of mine offered to give me his sports picks. He's 19 years old, and claims he has been sports betting since age 13 (almost certainly a fabrication of some sort) and has never had a losing year. He watches sports games on tv all the time, but rarely reads about sports, and never uses computer aid to pick teams.
The person is very intelligent and is a great poker player, and claims to be even better at sports betting than he is at poker. I'm strongly considering investing 30k in this kid's picks, although I am somewhat concerned that he is overly confident based on limited results. I know very ittle at sports betting, and really have no clue how many people that think they are longterm winners actually are. What do you experts think? Also, if anyone else would like to sell me a years worth of pics for a small % of my profits, let me know. 
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#2
01-14-2005, 02:45 AM
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Re: How easy is it to win at sports betting?
Does he have documented records? Most likely not. Where was he betting since he was 13? I would be very skeptical.
[ QUOTE ] Also, if anyone else would like to sell me a years worth of pics for a small % of my profits, let me know. [/ QUOTE ] Don't do this. Anybody can get lucky. The "seller" would be in a win/win situation. Where you are in a lose/lose. craig
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#3
01-14-2005, 04:16 AM
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Re: How easy is it to win at sports betting?
Craig is exactly right. Beating sports consistently over a long period of time is harder than most people think. Ask to see documentation. If he says he hasn't had a losing year, he should have documentation to back that up. Then check the sample size. If it's less than 500 picks or so (and preferably 1000), I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in it.
Most people that try their hand at sports betting think they can win because they watch sports a lot on TV. What they don't realize is that everything on TV is public information and is thus already factored into the line. The linesmakers watched the games too, as did all the other bettors out there.
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#4
01-14-2005, 04:35 AM
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Re: How easy is it to win at sports betting?
Do the numbers. The rake is 10%+. How much can his edge be? How much can a small percentage of that be? How much are you giving up if he can beat the crap out of sports? If it beats and index fund, I'll kiss your ass.
He may be smart, good looking, good at poker, have a good track record, etc., -- doesn't make it a good idea. And a sports bettor without records has as much credibility as a self claimed winning craps/black jack/poker/etc player without records.
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#7
01-14-2005, 04:47 AM
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Re: How easy is it to win at sports betting?
You might be getting confused with the house edge being a little more than 4%. The cheapest lines are usually -107 for football and basketball. And some sites will have special promotions on fridays, for example.
craig
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#10
01-14-2005, 10:43 AM
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Re: How easy is it to win at sports betting?
[ QUOTE ]
He watches sports games on tv all the time, but rarely reads about sports, and never uses computer aid to pick teams. [/ QUOTE ] I doubt he is a longterm winner. Most people who don't track their results tend to forget their losses... real gamblers... Anyway, you can quiz the kid- Have him handicap a few games and ask for his explanations... do they make sense? you can see if he wins Warning: even when flipping a coin, hot streaks happen A cheesy online test I found this week- http://www.professionalgambler.com/iqtest.html I got an 8... math [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
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