Strange $109 PP First hand

TomCollins · #1 01-13-2005, 01:31 PM

First hand, 1k stacks. I'm in BB with JJ (10/15 blinds). 1 limper in middle position, small blind completes. I raise to 75, limper folds, small blind re-raises to 500. I push, he calls, shows 45o, and busts.

I made this call because I did not fear AA, KK, QQ. I put him on possibly AK, and a very good chance at a low pair.

Is this push with JJ profitable having 0 read on an opponent?

citanul · #2 01-13-2005, 01:51 PM

at 109, this play is not so good.

if it is +Chip EV, it is just barely. it's a pretty dumb spot to gamble it up.

if you put him on exactly AK, i'm pretty sure you're supposed to fold.

why, if i can ask, would you distinctly put him on AK but not AA KK or QQ?

citanul

kspade · #3 01-13-2005, 02:23 PM

If you have 0 read, how do you not put him on a higher PP?

assron · #4 01-13-2005, 02:42 PM

I would lay that down in under 2 seconds

TomCollins · #5 01-13-2005, 03:19 PM

He had a chance to raise before, with only 1 player to act. It is so foolish to play KK, AA, QQ this way. Players are more likely to limp with AKo. I thought it was more likely he had TT or so.

And if he shows AK here, I would never fold.

TheAmp · #6 01-13-2005, 03:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It is so foolish to play KK, AA, QQ this way.

[/ QUOTE ]
and to go all-in with 45o isnt?
instead of putting him on AK, it is better to put him on range of hands he could have, and estimate the average.
fold for 100+9 Sng. push for 20+2 or lower.

Elektrik · #7 01-13-2005, 03:29 PM

It takes a very tricky player to simply complete after one limper in the SB with AA, KK, or QQ and give the limper a free flop with position. Most of the time, the BB will check behind. I also think the SB would usually raise with AK, and possibly AQ.

Next, SB's reraise was a massive overbet of the pot. Most players with AA or KK will make a smaller raise, unless they're being tricky again.

For those reasons, I don't think he has AA, KK, QQ, or even AK, and if he does he's played it very, very strangely. I'd venture to say he'll usually have a medium pocket pair like TT, 99, or 88, although with the strange way he played it I really can't put him on a solid hand.

I push.

pooh74 · #8 01-13-2005, 05:22 PM

2 things come to mind while readin this thread, 1 an assertion, the other a question/assertion.

1. Why, Tom, would u never lay this down to AK at this point in a SNG? My thinking at this point in the tournament leaves me to want to only make these all or nothing wagers with a better than 54-46 layover...IOW a cointoss. If midway through, bubble, in money...absolutely...but on first hand I would only want these bets pf where I am "sure" (there are no sures) I have at least a 70-30 and I will actually only play this % of stack post flop where I know more or less where I stand as to final outcome.

2. Where are we distinguishing this move b/t a 109 or a 20? Is the thinking that at a 20 the sb would be more likely to make this move with 88 where at 109 he would not? not sure this is relevant...treat them all the same, although hard IMO.

p

adanthar · #9 01-13-2005, 06:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1. Why, Tom, would u never lay this down to AK at this point in a SNG? My thinking at this point in the tournament leaves me to want to only make these all or nothing wagers with a better than 54-46 layover...IOW a cointoss.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're a typical winning but not crushing the $100's player, your ROI will be in the 10-15% range. If he shows you AK and you fold, you are passing on an 11:9 shot to double up - a play that's actually better than your average return. You *cannot* do that.

[ QUOTE ]
2. Where are we distinguishing this move b/t a 109 or a 20? Is the thinking that at a 20 the sb would be more likely to make this move with 88 where at 109 he would not? not sure this is relevant...treat them all the same, although hard IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you treat them all the same you will lose incredibly large amounts of money every time you try to move up. The level of sophistication of your opponent is *very* relevant.

pooh74 · #10 01-13-2005, 06:17 PM

thanks,

as to your second point, nonetheless ( i know this a results oriented example) the guy here turned over 45o...i wouldnt expect that even at the 5s. but overall, i feel some adjustment to opponent is necessary as you move up, of course, good point.

As to the first point, what i meant was, does doubling up 11:9 really translate into $s...Don't know what ICM would say about this and furthemore is it even much of a factor at all on the first hand where you're still up against 9 players? Still have to disagree here...i wanna see a flop with JJ first hand...any level.