Calling all in with 53o as small stack vs smaller stack?

bigredlemon · #1 01-07-2005, 03:02 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (3 handed) converter

BB (t1080)
Button (t5250)
Hero (t1670)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Button folds, Hero completes, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t1080 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls t680.

Final Pot: t2160

Normally, I couldn't throw this hand away faster. Here's my read BB/Villain: he played the role of a manic aggressive early, and would raise with any pair on the flop and was actually doing quite well until sometime in level 3 when he got called and crippled. He's been playing extremly weak-tight since then. By the time we got to a threesome, his play had gotten pretty predictable:

See a flop, and either bet or check/fold. I've played him a few times and he always folded to my min-bet on the flop. (If he bet first, i'd fold, but he rarely bets the flop.)

I didn't want to raise-steal because he seems more willing to call a PF bet than a bet from the flop. I'd cost me t200 to see a flop, and win t800 65% of the time. very +EV

What I didn't expect would be him pushing all in. With 680 more to win a 2160 bet, I was getting pot odds in my favour. Assuming he had any pair or any two broadway, I had the odds to call up to t778, so this call would have been marginally +EV in chips.

In the 36% times where I win, I would guarentee a second with a good shot at first.
If I call and lose, I'd have about 600 left and will have less than a coinflip's chance of making second.
If I fold, then it'll be two small stacks vs. a big stack who's not afraid to steal, so i'll have coinflip's chance of making 2nd and drawing slim to first.

Since the cost of calling and losing wasn't that different from folding, and the benefit of winning was so large, I decided to call his all in. (If it matters, I have usually folded to a PF raise. If not, I'd re-raise.)

What do you guys think of Gus Hansen logic?

rachelwxm · #2 01-07-2005, 03:22 PM

Fold PF, even from chip EV perspective, you don't get odds had you known bb would move in. Given you call PF, you have to call all in here. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

bigredlemon · #3 01-07-2005, 03:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold PF, even from chip EV perspective, you don't get odds had you known bb would move in. Given you call PF, you have to call all in here. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]If I had known he'd push, it'd be an easy fold from SB. I called precisely because he always checks.

syka16 · #4 01-07-2005, 03:30 PM

why did you complete with trash? With less than 3BB ITM he's probably going to push any two here. Fold preflop and push top 70% on the next hand.

TMFS9 · #5 01-07-2005, 03:30 PM

This is a push or a fold. Calling here is definitely the worst move IMO, If you knew that you would call an all in you should have been the one pushing. But in this situation I would fold.

ColdestCall · #6 01-07-2005, 03:32 PM

Given your read on the villain, I suppose calling to try and steal the hand on the flop is not entirely unreasonable. However, if you are willing to call his all-in reraise, you should have just pushed to begin with because if he was playing weak-tight you are very likely to steal his blind. In any event, I would have likely folded the 5-3 off to begin with.

I think there may be a flaw in your reasoning when it comes to calling Villains all-in. You think that you are calling 680 to win 2160, and, since you estimate you can call up to T778, you should call. Actually, I think that in reality you are at least a 3 to 1 dog pre-flop dog here on average, but that is besides the point. The point is that you are calling 680 to win 1480, not 2160, becuase that 680 is still yours before you bet, so it can't be counted as what you hope to "win." So in reality you are getting around 2.2 to 1 from the pot and can safely chuck your hand in the muck.

rachelwxm · #7 01-07-2005, 03:36 PM

The issue is even you know he never raise PF, what flop do you want to play with 53o? Are you pushing any flop here?

bigredlemon · #8 01-07-2005, 03:39 PM

Looking over the math, you're right there. I only had the odds to call up to 673, just shy of 680. I'm sure it'll be costing me fold equity too in the long run. Looks like the consensus is put the play back into the drawers for better situations.

ColdestCall · #9 01-07-2005, 03:39 PM

Why does he have to call the all-in? He has 5-3 offsuit.

ColdestCall · #10 01-07-2005, 03:44 PM

I'm not trying to nit pick here, but I just noticed that in your OP you said that you were betting 200 to win 800 65% of the time by calling. Again, you are not betting 200 to win 800 - you are betting 200 to win 600, because that's what is already in the pot. I think you may have gotten into the habit of adding your bet to what you hope to win, and this might cost you a lot of money in the long run. Plug it up, and good luck.