Am I good, bad or lucky?

[mmillar]

I got a tight/aggressive strategy off the Internet, which I started playing at the beginning of December.

Since then I've played about 100 STT ('single table tournament' or 'sit and go') games and am coming in the money (1st, 2nd or 3rd) about half the time. No-limit, between $5-$25 entry fee.

I know 100 games isn't a lot so just wanted to know if this is reasonable? Or am I just on a wild lucky streak?

Thanks

[Bigwig]

50% ITM at those levels is doable.

[pottie]

Im still a beginner, so cant really answer your q...

Would appreciate if you could provide a link to the strategy yor are playing.

Thx

[mmillar]

I guess the consensus is I'm just being lucky. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Oh well.

I'll keep playing and let you know when I get to 200.

Cheers

[mcpherzen]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess the consensus is I'm just being lucky. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Oh well.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not quite that simple. My input would be that, yes, you are on a bit of a hot streak and your numbers are probably unsustainable in the long run. But that doesn't mean the entirety of it is luck by a long shot. In other words, I'd really doubt you finish down over the next 100 tournaments, but I'd also doubt your ITM and ROI results are as good in the next 100 sngs as in the first 100 you've played.

In my opinion, the only stat that really matters is ITM%. Can you finish in the money or not, and what percentage of time? Over lots and lots of tourneys, the distribution of 1sts, 2nds, and 3rds will should really even out if you play correctly strategically until the bubble and you understand heads up play. In my opinion, the blinds are just so high once you get to heads-up play that finishing first, say, twice as frequently, as you finish 2nd is just not possible over the long run.

Since a sng pays 3 places, an ITM of 30% is random. 45% ITM would represent that you are 50% better than your random set of opponents. That is "killing them," in my opinion. Personally, I set my ITM goal for 44.4% which is exactly 4 out of 9 tournaments, and I'm just shy of that over the long run. If you can stay between 38 and 42 ITM at the $33 level and below, you'll make a lot of money online.

--Zen

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
In my opinion, the only stat that really matters is ITM%. Can you finish in the money or not, and what percentage of time? Over lots and lots of tourneys, the distribution of 1sts, 2nds, and 3rds will should really even out if you play correctly strategically until the bubble and you understand heads up play. In my opinion, the blinds are just so high once you get to heads-up play that finishing first, say, twice as frequently, as you finish 2nd is just not possible over the long run.


[/ QUOTE ]

Very good post, but I take issue with this.

ROI, while harder to gauge with a small sample, is much more important than ITM%.

With certain styles of play, you can absolutely find yourself coming in 1st twice as often as 2nd in the long run.

50% ITM isn't that difficult to attain if you play for 3rd. If you got third half the tourneys you played and OTM the other half (I know this doesn't actually happen), you would be losing money with an ITM of 50%.

The comments about this probably being a luck streak, but still indicates a winning player, I agree with 100%.

-Jman28