Some Strategy for Newcomers

In a post below I talk about how some people who post here may be doing more harm than good for someone who may be reading this board that is new to sports betting and looking for some insight. With that in mind, I thought I'd post some advice/information for those just starting out. You can take it for what it is worth and if some more veteran handicappers think I am full of it, you are more than welcome to respond.


If you know nothing or next to nothing about betting NFL football, stick with betting home teams that are a fairly big favorite (7 or more points). There are a couple of reasons for this. Football, along with basketball, are the two sports that have the biggest home advantage. In hockey or baseball, one player,either the goalie or pitcher, can singlehandidly win a game for a team. In football, this is a lot harder to do. Football is a very physical and thus emotional game for those involved. The home field plays into this emotion and can pump a team up. Also, if a team is a 7 point or more favorite, this is because they are the better team. And in sports, the better team wins the majority of the time. Also, you will have a better chance of being in the game at the end and covering if you are playing the better team. There is a chance that your team could be blowing them out, but the reverse, the inferior team blowing out the favorite is less likely to happen. There is a saying in horse racing that can be apllicable here. It basically goes if yuo know nothing about handicapping horses, get yourself a dancer (frontrunner) out of the gate. You have the race won until they beat you, until they pass you. Same concept here. Chances are , you will be in the game until the end, until they beat you or get close enough for you not to cover. As I said, you have a greater chance of having the game won well before that and can be sweating it at the end if you havent. There is nothing sweeter than having a game won by the start of the second half and nothing worse than having it lost at that same point in time.


I do not want this to be construed as advocating betting heavy home favorites all the time. This advice is strictly for those who know little or nothing about betting the NFL.--Big Al--

I don't have a database handy, but big favorites playing at home getting double-digit numbers is the bet made by people whom I thought I was betting against on average.


JG