"Fossilman" Raymer Gambles By Fighting Off Muggers

[Cyrus]

LVRJ Report

Was Raymer's a good choice or a bad one, RoR-wise, for him?

If I could ask a dead man, what he would pay me to allow him to live again, would he only offer $150,000?

<font color="white"> .</font>

[pindawg]

ALERT THE PRESSES!!!!

[MMMMMM]

Cyrus you should check the other threads on this; it has been discussed at great length (check the WPT forum).

Basically, Raymer felt that his chances of survival were greater fighting than cooperating, since the muggers were trying to force him into his hotel room. Plus, Greg was there to get "tells" and mannerisms on the spot. The guy with the gun also appeared unconfortable with the weapon. It was a situation-dependent play and Raymer performed admirably under great pressure.

Don't ever allow anyone to kidnap you; your chances of survival are probably better fighting at the outset than ending up tied up and powerless. If they tell you that "all we want is your money" they might not be telling the truth, especially if they are trying to take control of you physically instead of just saying "hand it over". There is a world of difference between hearing "fork it over" versus "get in your room" or "get in the car".

Greg would also have been "gambling" if he had allowed himself to be abducted to his hotel room, and quite possibly under far more adverse circumstances.

Would you have had the presence of mind, and the balls, to fight in that situation?

[jakethebake]

Thank God! another thread on this! I was afraid it was going to die.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

why MMMMMM didn't make Sklansky's top 10 list. He clearly belongs there.

later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Cyrus]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been wondering for days why MMMMMM didn't make Sklansky's top 10 list.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand that Sklansky reads MMMMMM's posts on the Politics forum as well.

[cardcounter0]

Greg,

I hope you remember my reply to your post shortly after winning the WSOP when you were looking for a baby sitter.

There are plenty of scumbags out there, and you are a target. How hard is it to ask for an escort to your room? Security does it all the time, and it is no big deal. Be careful about letting people know where you are or where you are going.

PS &gt; I think you made the right move. Even if you had forked over your pocket change, there was no sure thing that was going to be the end of it. They had a gun, and could have forced you into your room, away from any eyes.

BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!

[turnipmonster]

the last line of that article is awesome. go greg!

[Cyrus]

Thanks for the response, MMMMMM. I think we are very lucky to be able to discuss a situation like this (about the ultimate risk) sitting in comfort in front of a computer screen while Greg had to actually go through it. (And, no, Greg, to answer you question, I don't think I could have handled myself "better than you".)

But isn't this what it's all about? About analysing situations? Analysing an airplane crash may seem callous to a crash survivor but it is both educational and necessary, IMHO.

[ QUOTE ]
Basically, Raymer felt that his chances of survival were greater fighting than cooperating, since the muggers were trying to force him into his hotel room. Plus, Greg was there to get "tells" and mannerisms on the spot. The guy with the gun also appeared uncomfortable with the weapon. It was a situation-dependent play and Raymer performed admirably under great pressure.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I already said (from the comfort of my PC), I disagree with the decision taken. I tend to measure not just EV -- but the EV/risk ratio (i.e. EV/Var). And I simply find the downside so big (=loss of own life) as to merit a big probability assignment on the scenario whereby other actions (than physical attack) would lead to certain death as well.

So, the question is, which is greater, A or B?

A = P(Greg dies|Greg attacks) and B = P(Greg dies|Greg does not attack).

If A &gt; B, then the wrong action was taken and the correct action (among the "does not attack") must be identified.
If A &lt; B, then the correct action was taken.

Remember that this discussion should NOT be "results oriented" (thank heavens, it turned out alright for Greg) but normative: In other words, what would you (or Greg) advise someone who finds himself under similar circumstances?

[ QUOTE ]
If they tell you that "all we want is your money" they might not be telling the truth, especially if they are trying to take control of you physically instead of just saying "hand it over". There is a world of difference between hearing "fork it over" versus "get in your room" or "get in the car".

[/ QUOTE ]

One could continue in the same, speculative vein and argue this then: The muggers in Greg's case simply wanted to get out from an area that is usually crowded, i.e. the hallway outside a myriad of rooms. Then they'd tie him up, etc. It's all speculation, of course.

As to the "reassurance" that all they want is the money, I believe this is not an uncommon statement by muggers, especially the non-killing kind.

* * *

Greg wrote that those muggers were "morons" and I believe that if they were truly big morons, they might have indeed gone on to kill Greg, after they entered the room and cleaned him up. They just might have done that, even though people might have seen them in the hallway. (I won't question their not being deterred by the cameras, because they were obviously below that level of idiocy!)

Greg also wrote "People like you really amaze me. Somebody makes a hugely difficult decision, having only a second or two to do it, and you criticize them. And it's not just this poster, but several."

Well, Greg, I wanna say that I have nothing but admiration for your courage, and sympathy for your plight (for having to go through that crap).

During the time I was only lurking here, I was learning quite a lot about poker by just reading your questions, let alone the answers they generated.

Nevertheless [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] , I happen to believe Greg took a gamble and survived against adverse odds. A gun going off is irreversible. You hadda be awfully sure, pardner, that their gun wouldna go off, to attack their ugly mugs!

Take care. And bravo again.

The final word belongs to the Fossilman:

[ QUOTE ]
It may be that [my] conclusion was in error, but it certainly wasn't a stupid conclusion. And in hindsight, I did make the right decision as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

[mike l.]

"Would you have had the presence of mind, and the balls, to fight in that situation?"

that is the $64 question isnt it? id like to think i would but maybe id just pee my pants and let them kill me.

nah, ive been waiting too long to find a really good reason to hurt someone, maybe kill someone, i think id go for the throat.