Trust your feelings, Luke/sanity check

adanthar · #1 01-03-2005, 10:38 PM

50+5 Party SNG. The blinds are 100/200 and it's 5 or 6 handed, it's not really important. Big stack loose but not horrible villain with 3K limps UTG, everyone folds to me with 2K and I check a ten and a five in a BB even though you need them both to make a straight with.

The flop is KTx, two spades. I minbet 200 into the 500 pot because, hey, I can. He calls.

The turn is some low spade. I check. He checks behind.

The river is a T and I make a 200-ish value bet that maybe his king just calls. He raises to 700.

Can I fold?

...in retrospect, if I was going to bet I sure as hell should fold, but can I fold *without* that bet?

Vish · #2 01-04-2005, 01:55 AM

You've certainly set yourself up to be bluffed with all this minbetting and checking. Nevertheless, I think you have to fold for two reasons: first, his raise doesn't seem big enough to induce a fold; it looks more like a value bet. Second, playing the hand from his point of view, it's unlikely he has a king. If I were a limper heads up against the blind, I had top pair, and the blind minbet into me, I'd assume my pair/kicker was better and raise. If I had a flush draw (or maybe even a ten), I'd be delighted at the minbet and call (well, maybe I'd raise, but a lot of people will call). That's why I think he has you beat.

Regarding your other question: the river bet only serves as a blocking bet if it's big enough. A minbet is asking to be raised, especially after a turn check.

ChrisV · #3 01-04-2005, 08:01 AM

Yeah, you can fold given how it played out. If you check and he bets it's tougher and depends on your read on the guy, but it looks a lot like a milking bet doesn't it?

I really hate the bet out on the flop here. You aren't going to do that with a king and he knows it, it's either a ten or a draw, which means all he has to do is call the bet with anything, and absent you hitting something on the turn, just take the pot off you with brute force. It's almost risk free.

I would check the flop and fold to a large bet. You are, after all, out of position against the big stack. If he min bet I would call and check to him again on the turn. Now it's him who's in the awkward position.

Scuba Chuck · #4 01-04-2005, 04:42 PM

I am a $33 player, so maybe my opinion isn't as strong.

If I were sitting in the villains shoes, and I am watching your betting pattern, you showed great weakness. I think I would overbet you just because "I know you'll fold."

In this situation though, you stated you have a set of Ts. Considering your definition of the villain, loose but plays good hands, I would put the villain on a KQ. Minimally, I think this is a call. The Villain has bluffed you.

texasrattlers · #5 01-04-2005, 05:23 PM

I agree with Scuba here. I wouldn't be too worried about the flush draw on the flop which hit on the turn since you are heads up. So the only thing I am concerned about is a bigger T, which is unlikey. And your betting does look very weak, so he may just be value betting that his KQ or Kx two pair is better than your K3 or whatever. I see plenty of bets like this from the big stack at the $10 buyin where you will have him beat -- things might be different at the $50 buyin, though.

Phil Van Sexton · #6 01-04-2005, 05:48 PM

Correct me if I have the chip counts wrong.

Pot is 1800. You have 1400 left. 500 more to call. I call here.

If I'm wrong, I still have 900 left which is still useable at 100/200. If the tens are good, you'll have 3200.

If you fold, you have 1400 left. Is 1400 really that much better than 900? I'd take a shot at the 3200 here.

ChrisV · #7 01-04-2005, 07:34 PM

I don't think you can put villain on a good king here. Firstly it would be a bizarre limp UTG with anything better than K9. Secondly it would also be a bizarre check behind on the turn. The check behind on the turn and then the raise when nothing changes on the river to me indicate either a big hand or a stone cold bluff. If it's the latter then you also have to explain why he didn't run the bluff on the turn, as well as why the bluff amount is so pitiful.

adanthar · #8 01-04-2005, 09:00 PM

I agree that I played that badly. I think my blind play needs a lot of work; I'm never quite sure what to do out of position with something like middle pair no kicker, especially to a loosie HU. Meh. (On the other hand, I *would* bet out with a king here...probably not a minbet, though. Sounds like I shouldn't be varying these bet sizes. Hmm.)

Anyway, I called after much thinking and lost to the guy's full house since he decided to limp kings and then checked behind his top set when the flush hit. Okay.

In retrospect I think I need to bet more on the river - 400+ - which makes the fold much easier.