on the bubble in the BB with 83s

Gravy (Gravy Smoothie) · #1 01-02-2005, 01:28 PM

Party $10/$1 NL STT. 4 people left, Blinds at 150/300. I am the short stack.

Hero (t955) posts a blind of t300 and is dealt 8c3c.

CO (t3400) open-limps, which I take to mean that his hand is playable but not amazing. I expect there's a pretty high percentage chance he will call if I go all-in preflop. Button and SB fold it to me. Two questions:

1) Am I pot committed?
2) If yes, is it better for me to wait to push until the flop, because it may increase my fold equity?

Gravy (Gravy Smoothie) · #2 01-02-2005, 09:27 PM

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bigredlemon · #3 01-02-2005, 10:19 PM

Realistically, you are probably a 1 to 2 underdog. If he pushes all in, you would marginally have the correct odds to call. Conversely, if he puts you on a stronger hand and think he's a 1-2 undergod, he still has the correct odds to call. Even if he loses, he will still have 2500 chips, which is still playable. If he wins, he'll have a large chip lead. Thus it's definetly in his interests to call. You won't have much fold equity unless you read him as a weak tight player.

Conversely, if you double up, you're back in the running for the top prize. If you fold, you'll only have 500 left, and then, you'll have even less fold equity.

I'd say either decision is so evenly balanced that it'll really depend on the situation. If there's no other small stacks, I'd have to push and hope for a miracle. If there's another small stack with about 1000 in chips, I'd consider folding and hope he bust out before next orbit, and look for a spot to move all in.

You're basically stuck in a bad spot.

willperkins · #4 01-02-2005, 10:24 PM

If my math is correct and you push, you will be investing t955 and if he calls the pot will be t2060. That means you are getting 2.16 to 1 on your bet. What do you think he has?

1. If he has two overcards you are about a 1.67 to 1 dog.
2. If he has 44,55,66,77,88 then you are about 2.5 to 1 dog.
3. If he has an overpair then you are about a 5-1 dog.

Since he limped and did not raise, I would put him on two over cards. I say push.

The pot odds are offering 2.16 to 1 and you are a 1.67 to 1 dog if he calls and I would say there is at least a 20% chance he may fold.

If you win, you will have 25% of the chips and a decent shot at 1st place. If you fold, you will still have to get lucky on the next orbit with very little chips and when you do push, anyone could call.