JJ, Party 3/6 hand -- maniacal turn play?

SinCityGuy · #1 12-30-2004, 05:27 AM

On the sixth day of Christmas, my true love gave to me, six tables beeping (clearing off a bonus on four of them).....

On one of the tighter tables, this hand came up:

Solid, tight/aggressive player open raises UTG, weak/tight MP cold calls, I 3-bet on the button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], blinds fold, UTG caps, weak-tight player folds, I call.

Two to the flop for 11 SB’s.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG bets, I call.

Two to the turn for 7.5 SB’s.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG bets, I raise.

My plan is for him to fold. Failing that, I’ll fold to a 3-bet; otherwise check behind on the river unimproved.

Comments?

Reef · #2 12-30-2004, 05:42 AM

Likely hands for him to raise: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, AKos, AQos, AJs. 19 combos of hands you beat that will most likely fold. (6+12+4+12+4+4)=42 more combos of hands are likely to call your raise or reraise. Basically 2/3 of the time he won't fold.

I think this can be figured out mathematically if you have an idea of what he will and will not fold (AQ/AJ?).

tolbiny · #3 12-30-2004, 06:21 AM

I don't know. I don't see to many players folding to this raise with KK or QQ- it is a decently big pot, and tough to take dump without taking a shot at it.
Seems like you could just bail if his preflop capping standards are t/a like you say.
If i am UTG i am not folding KK or QQ- i probably fold the other JJ to give you half.

SinCityGuy · #4 12-30-2004, 07:03 AM

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I think this can be figured out mathematically if you have an idea of what he will and will not fold (AQ/AJ?).

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I'm pretty sure he doesn't have AQ or AJ.

SinCityGuy · #5 12-30-2004, 07:15 AM

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Likely hands for him to raise: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, AKos, AQos, AJs. 19 combos of hands you beat that will most likely fold.

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My profile on this T/A player is: out of position, capping against two opponents, his most likely holdings are AA, KK, QQ and AKs. With the ace on the flop, that leaves 3 combinations of AA, 6 combinations of KK, 6 combinations of QQ, and 3 combinations of AKs.

Reef · #6 12-30-2004, 07:20 AM

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Likely hands for him to raise: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, AKos, AQos, AJs. 19 combos of hands you beat that will most likely fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

My profile on this T/A player is: out of position, capping against two opponents, his most likely holdings are AA, KK, QQ and AKs. With the ace on the flop, that leaves 3 combinations of AA, 6 combinations of KK, 6 combinations of QQ, and 3 combinations of AKs.

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good call. I did not consider the cap. I really shouldn't do anything requiring thinking this late.

I'm still curious why you think he wouldn't cap AKo or AQs, especially against a button reraiser

SinCityGuy · #7 12-30-2004, 07:29 AM

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I'm still curious why you think he wouldn't cap AKo or AQs, especially against a button reraiser

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This guy is a good player, and he's seen me come over the top of his initial raise plus the cold-caller in between. I'm not saying it's impossible for him to have AKo or AQ, but most of these solid 3/6 Party players would not cap out of position with those hands.

Reef · #8 12-30-2004, 07:32 AM

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I'm still curious why you think he wouldn't cap AKo or AQs, especially against a button reraiser

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This guy is a good player, and he's seen me come over the top of his initial raise plus the cold-caller in between. I'm not saying it's impossible for him to have AKo or AQ, but most of these solid 3/6 Party players would not cap out of position with those hands.

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could he have capped to add dead $, since he knew weak-tight would call for 1 bet but fold for 2?

SinCityGuy · #9 12-30-2004, 07:39 AM

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could he have capped to add dead $, since he knew weak-tight would call for 1 bet but fold for 2?

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It's certainly possible.

I'm not saying that I played this hand well by any means. I rarely make moves like this, but I do occasionally. At any rate, I think that raising the turn here is a lot more powerful than raising the flop.

Shillx · #10 12-30-2004, 07:46 AM

I understand the concept here, but wouldn't a flop raise and turn bet be more likely to fold out KK/QQ? A good player should know that a turn raise isn't likely to be AK (why not wait until the river). I would probably just fold on this flop, but I can't argue with your intention here given the pot size.

Brad