Whiffed AK on a paired flop: Fight or run away?

chesspain · #1 12-29-2004, 08:54 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

UTG is a borderline TAG who plays somewhat LAGishly preflop and a bit too passively postflop (approx. 20/15/1.5), and who before this hand was up nearly 50BB in the 120 hands I had on him. Both UTG+1 and Button are loose-passive and prone to calling down with any pair. In addition, for what it's worth, I was card-dead in the fifty hands at this table before this hand, as I had seen maybe 10% of the flops and hadn't won a single hand.

Preflop: chesspain is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, chesspain 3-bets, 3 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (13.33 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, chesspain folds...(???)

Against this lineup, with this flop, and with the action before me, was this fold too weak? If it was, then what should my plan have been?

Freakin · #2 12-29-2004, 08:57 PM

I don't mind the fold. You're getting pretty good pot odds, but you really don't know what outs are clean yet. UTG probably has a PP or something like KQ (or a whiffed AJ or somesuch). I'm guessing you are behind to at least one of the four players in teh hand. Maybe thats weak, but I don't see how you have any clean outs.

Freakin

chesspain · #3 12-29-2004, 11:00 PM

.

Nick C · #4 12-30-2004, 12:09 AM

I'd probably call and hope Button doesn't raise, but I don't think folding is bad at all. You've got to figure you're behind at least one of your opponents, and while your ace and/or king outs may be good, it's hard to know which are, if either. You've got a weak backdoor straight too, but you're not closing the action, and someone who called 3 cold preflop is left to act (though he is at least passive).

I don't know. I think folding and calling are fine, and if I was feeling reckless I might raise and hope that's the last money I have to put in before I improve.

GrunchCan · #5 12-30-2004, 12:33 AM

You could be up against AQ, in which case your drawing to 3 K outs. On the other hand, you just as likely could be up against a weaker Q or JJ etc, in which case your AK is probably worth more like 4 outs. And don't forget the BDSD. I figure your'e worth around 5 outs, and pot odds dictate you see the turn. A raise might force the 1 player out behind you and win a free card, so I raise.

If I get re-raised, I'm fairly sure I'm reverse dominated. In that case, only my BDSD is live. At 1.5 outs and a 1:16 bet facing me, I gladly fold.

thrillhouse7 · #6 12-30-2004, 06:55 AM

This BDSD is not worth 1.5 outs. I think the following is accurate.
.015 = (8/47)(4/46) = half an out. The eight representing the eight cards on the turn that give you a 4 out straight draw.

concept acquired from SSH p. 103. Thanks Ed.

I think I am right in estimating it to be .5 outs but i know it's less than 1.5

Reef · #7 12-30-2004, 06:59 AM

Folding seems fine. Best case you have 3 outs.

private joker · #8 12-30-2004, 08:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Folding seems fine. Best case you have 3 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, best case is he has the best hand. But it's not worth finding out -- costing 2.5BB at minimum. I fold this primarily because UTG+1 called in between two PF aggressors. I have to put him on a PP or a Q even if UTG is bluffing a whiffed AJ or something.

spamuell · #9 12-30-2004, 09:05 AM

Getting 15:1, I do not fold here. You have the odds to call with three outs. Yeah, there's a chance that it will get raised behind you or you have less than three outs. But there's also a chance that you currently have the best hand and there is the money you make when you hit a pair on the turn, which although will sometimes not be the winner, is still a profitable situation.

This isn't the best situation to be in but there's not a chance I'm folding this flop getting 15:1.

StellarWind · #10 12-30-2004, 01:42 PM

Your 0.5 out number is correct for a backdoor straight draw that completes only one way. The 1.5 out number is for three-way draws like JT9 (KQ/Q8/87) or T875 (J9/96/64). Two-way draws for 1.0 outs are also possible.

Except this draw is terribly tainted. We are discussing a potential final board of 88QJT with another PFR in the pot. I'm sure AK will be the untied best hand at showdown [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. Take a big discount off that 0.5 outs.