Do I Fear Flushes In The Closet?

[gaming_mouse]

I decided to wait till the turn to raise, but then the flush card came and scared me. I think I slowed down too much but I'm not sure what the best line is. I have some more thoughts below (feel free to read or ignore them when responding)....

Also, could you answer the question for

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG folds, Hero calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.16 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (9.16 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Final Pot: 9.16 BB


I think the best line would have been to raise the turn. I cannot fold to a re-raise (because I'd have odds to draw to a boat), but I could fold the river unimproved. The total risk for this line seems to be 2BB. However, if CO does have the flush, he might very well smooth call my turn raise and raise me again when I bet the river, as he's a good player. So I could easily be risking 3 BB.

The upside is harder to calculate. The times CO and BB are still on draws (str8 draws or single spade draws) I gain at least 2 BB and possibly more if they call a river bet with, say, a pocket pair, not unlikely for CO. This assumes they don't improve though. Also, I will improve to a boat sometimes when I'm beat, and in those cases I stand to win at least 4BB and possibly more.

So calculating the risk/reward for this line correctly is not easy. My gut tells me it's the best line. But a rigorous analysis would take the weighted average for all possibilities into account -- something I can't do in my head.

On the other hand, betting the river and folding to a raise is somewhere between a 1:1 and 1:2 shot.

In any case, I'm curious what others think of my analysis. Am I missing anything?

TIA,
gm

[gaming_mouse]

bump. (moving fast today)

[BottlesOf]

When you've got an extra person in and are out of position, I favor a 3 bet on the flop. The other guy may fold the turn anyway. Get money from him while you can.

[mikeyvegas]

[ QUOTE ]
When you've got an extra person in and are out of position, I favor a 3 bet on the flop. The other guy may fold the turn anyway. Get money from him while you can.

[/ QUOTE ]

I concur. Also, bet the turn. Sets are really good hands. You already know that though.

[TripleH68]

Hey mouse,

Surely you do not fear the CO made a flush. He may have an overpair and/or may be following through on the turn with a single high spade. The best part of raising is he will likely be calling. More money for you.

[Kirg]

Since CO raised preflop I'd be less inclined to put him on a flushdraw (altough still possible), instead I'd be more likely to put him on a big pair and 3-bet the flop and bet out on the turn, if raised on the turn a big pair with a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] would still be my inclination for the CO. And then you can go by BB's turn actions to worry about him having a flush or not.