Let's Talk Player Reads

[Festus22]

Having a read on your opponents continues to be emphasized as an important, and in some cases a vital component of one's arsenal. I'm not going to debate that statement per se but I do question just how much weight reads have in determining correct play.

For example, I have notes on a few hundred players with whom I've played 70 or more hands (that's my personal cutoff for considering the data reasonably valid). I'd guess maybe 80% of them have VP$IP/PF Raise numbers within a few points of 15/7. I see these players as pretty much using "normal/good" strategy and the play against them is pretty straight-forward.

The LAG's are pretty easy to spot with or without notes and honestly, I don't have notes on too many since they usually bust out quickly. But again, they're easy to spot and require a different approach.

I have a few tight/passives who I really what out for when they're betting and especially raising.

OK - now with all that said, how many times have my notes and reads REALLY come into play when making a decision? Tough to estimate but in reality, not that much. LAG's get good cards sometimes, tight players can have a surprise hand, even a passive can do the unexpected.

I'd say betting within a hand, pot and implied odds and board/hand reading are all more important in most cases than reads. Reads are tendencies only. Their applicability in any one hand cannot be taken as absolute and can actually lead to erroneous assumptions and mistakes.

Is it a valuable tool? Yes. But only as one, small piece of the overall equation.

I'm probably in the minority but I think reads are overrated in the vast majority of cases.

[runa]

I'm not sure what you define as overrated. I think there are close decisions that can be swayed by reads, and while that may not add up to a hugely significant EV difference it certainly separates the excellent player from the good players. I also think that good players make it a point to make notes and use reads to shape the way they think about the hand. That in and of itself is more subtle but important, and affects everything you do. If you're talking about reads akin to a tell that allows you to make plays that would otherwise be out of line, that can be costly and is probably overrated.

[jrobb83]

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I'd say betting within a hand, pot and implied odds and board/hand reading are all more important in most cases than reads.

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The player read is the roadmap you use to decipher all of this information. The betting pattern within the hand is determined by player tendancies. Your immediate odds depend on the number of outs you have, which change depending on the cards your opponent could be holding. Your implied odds depend on how much action your opponent is likely to give you on subsequent streets. I'm not sure how you seperate hand reading from player reads.

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Reads are tendencies only. Their applicability in any one hand cannot be taken as absolute and can actually lead to erroneous assumptions and mistakes.


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Wheras it is impossible to determine exactly what a player may be doing in any given hand, it is easy with notes to determine on average what this player is likely doing based on past action. Your statement is incorrect. While their applicability in any one hand is never 100%, a player read will only occasionally lead to erroneous assumptions and mistakes and usually lead to correct decisions in marginal situations.

Having a player read will drastically change my course of action for the entire hand, and entire session I am involved in with this player. If you do not pay close attention to player reads you are missing out on a good portion of your potential earn.

[Luke]

Hi Festus,

I agree with your statements, but only to some extent.

Yes, "player reads" are only a part of the overall equation, but at least in my regular game (the Party 15), they come into play quite often.

First of all, they are what help me to choose a game and a specific seat.

While playing hands in the 15, you have a wide range of talent and aggression levels, so knowing where your various opponents stand is imperative to winning play.

When I'm faced with a preflop raise and I'm holding marginal hands, I also look at my player notes and factor that into my decision. I wouldn't say I have a standard play with AQo when faced with an EP raise, for example.

As far as postflop play goes, I feel player reads come in even more handy when I'm wondering how many bets I can go with a hand, if I should call down or fold.

But I can remember playing .5/$1 and 2/4 without any reads, doing just fine, and not worrying as much about specific reads.

So perhaps as the spectrum of aggression is widened (the typical case as you move up), player reads become more important in making playing decisions.

Good post.

Luke

[Octopus]

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But I can remember playing .5/$1 and 2/4 without any reads, doing just fine, and not worrying as much about specific reads.

So perhaps as the spectrum of aggression is widened (the typical case as you move up), player reads become more important in making playing decisions.

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Amen. I used to play 2/4 without reads all the time. I would be very uncomfortable sitting down at a 5/10 table without at least some info on the players, if only their pre-flop stats.

[Bob T.]

I'd say betting within a hand, pot and implied odds and board/hand reading are all more important in most cases than reads. Reads are tendencies only. Their applicability in any one hand cannot be taken as absolute and can actually lead to erroneous assumptions and mistakes.


If you don't do this stuff right, your right, reads don't make a difference.

But if you do, and you have to remember that they are not absolute, they are going to add to your bottom line. I use them both preflop and postflop, and the number one read that I use, is that I upgrade the hand I need to get involved when a passive player raises, either preflop, or postflop.

I also like to know what street my opponent likes to fold on when they miss. That tells me how many bullets I need to be prepared to fire when I get involved headsup.

But as you said, if your fundamentals are all wrong, then the fine points don't really matter.